Lunardi’s latest bracket
- Thread starter unihorn
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Because in their last 3 games they’ve beaten #23 Wisconsin, #2 Michigan, and #7 Ohio State...all on the road. And they were sitting at #4 when they did that.
1. Why was 6-loss Illinois sitting at #4?
2. Road games without crowds aren't quite the same as road games with them. I saw a stat that road teams were winning 5% more of their games this year.
3. Is 8-loss tOSU really a top 10 team after losing four straight?
Good points. Good question. Aside from Gonzaga, Baylor and Michigan, most power conference teams have a minimum of 6 losses. Look at the Big12 teams in the top 25. Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma and WVU all have at least 8 losses.
I’ve watched Illinois 3-4 times. I’ve seen them play like a top 10 team and I’ve seen them look like they don’t belong in the top 25. That last stretch of 3 wins, they were rewarded handsomely for.
Right, because the B12 might be the best conference this year and they all beat up on each other.
I guess you're right. There's Gonzaga and Baylor, and then everyone else. Everyone else just beat up on each other. There are other teams I could make a case for, but they don't really look better than Illinois.
I just wonder if the Big Ten is really that good top-to-bottom or if there just weren't enough games between conferences to make a fair assessment.
I would take Drake over any power team that has a conference record around .500. Drake`s best non-conference win is over Kansas St. Not exactly a good resume.
Perhaps, but I’d give the nod to the Big 10 being the best conference. The Big 12 being a fairly close 2nd. Both conferences are a gauntlet of sorts, though.
The Commitee told them to schedule power conference schools, however, the power schools are not as reciprocating. It doesn't help their SOS but a WKU or a Saint Mary's will, so they schedule them. The attitude is "Hey, the NIT will take you", but that's not the point, but what can you do?
I think scheduling principles are thrown out for this year, but Drake didn’t play any solid mid majors either. Unless you count Air Force.
Believe it or not, the WCC was not far behind as they were the 4th best conference this year especially when it is ranked by Strength of Schedule. It will be interesting to see how them match up with many of the overrated Big 10 and Big 12 schools that beat up on each other but no one out of their conference.
Ok St, West Vir, Kansas, and Texas are all going to be over seeded at 4 or under as is Purdue. Therefore, you may get a lot of upsets of the higher seeds that aren't really upsets.
Really it is Gonzaga and Baylor above everyone else with teams like Illinois, Iowa and Michigan a distant second.
Agree with your statement on some of these teams being overrated. However, I don’t see too many of those teams losing in first round upsets. From what I’ve seen, they beat up on each other because so many of them are legit.
I think Michigan, when playing well, can beat either Baylor or Gonzaga. I think Illinois can hang too. Not convinced Ohio State can. When UT is playing well, they also look athletic and tough to beat. To me the difference is Baylor and Gonzaga are exceptionally consistent. Most of others I mentioned are hit or miss.
Definitely looking forward to March Madness, to see how it all plays out. A hunch tells me Gonzaga will not win it all. Baylor might. Just my .02 worth.
I think Michigan, when playing well, can beat either Baylor or Gonzaga. I think Illinois can hang too. Not convinced Ohio State can. When UT is playing well, they also look athletic and tough to beat. To me the difference is Baylor and Gonzaga are exceptionally consistent. Most of others I mentioned are hit or miss.
Definitely looking forward to March Madness, to see how it all plays out. A hunch tells me Gonzaga will not win it all. Baylor might. Just my .02 worth.
The problem with Michigan is that they absolutely played no one out of conference. Not one ranked opponent. So, if you are to believe the Big 10 is a great conference, you are basing it on those teams against each other and no one else. Gonzaga played a much tougher out of conference schedule and destroyed an Iowa team that is right there with Michigan.
There is no basis on how good the Big 10 and Big 12 is this year. It is almost all based on inter conference. They will flood the tournament with almost every team from those conferences which is going to put a lot of overrated teams in and that in turn will produce wins by the lower seeds.
Texas did play a decent out of conference schedule, beating Indiana, NC, and losing a close on to Villanova. Yet, they are inconsistent and I can't see them putting that many games together. The over seeding will not help them either. Just imagine if you are an over rated and untested number 2 (Illinois, Houston, Iowa or Ohio State) and you draw San Diego State in the second round. That is going to be very interesting.
There is no basis on how good the Big 10 and Big 12 is this year. It is almost all based on inter conference. They will flood the tournament with almost every team from those conferences which is going to put a lot of overrated teams in and that in turn will produce wins by the lower seeds.
Texas did play a decent out of conference schedule, beating Indiana, NC, and losing a close on to Villanova. Yet, they are inconsistent and I can't see them putting that many games together. The over seeding will not help them either. Just imagine if you are an over rated and untested number 2 (Illinois, Houston, Iowa or Ohio State) and you draw San Diego State in the second round. That is going to be very interesting.
Despite my own take, I can see your point of view. We’ll see soon enough.
Yours are well put and thought out. I could be completely wrong. Mine are very analytical, meaning number driven. I think it will fall somewhere between your view and mine. And I enjoy reading your posts.
Michigan absolutely destroyed Iowa. Didn't Iowa hang with Gonzaga till the very end?
Gonzaga was never threatened in that game. They scored 99 points against a very good defensive team. Also look at the game flow as an indicator. Michigan really pulled away with 10 to go, and Gonzaga basically kept a 10 point lead the whole game.
Look at the offensive numbers Gonzaga has put up this year. They are better than Dak Prescott's.
Put Michigan's out of conference schedule up against Gonzaga. And the WCC was ranked the 4th best SOS conference which is no small feat. Therefore, just because Michigan played teams in their conference that were untested out of it, the argument that their conference is heads and shoulders better does not stand up as glaringly this year.
Look at the offensive numbers Gonzaga has put up this year. They are better than Dak Prescott's.
Put Michigan's out of conference schedule up against Gonzaga. And the WCC was ranked the 4th best SOS conference which is no small feat. Therefore, just because Michigan played teams in their conference that were untested out of it, the argument that their conference is heads and shoulders better does not stand up as glaringly this year.
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I guess we'll see how it shakes out. I feel pretty confident if they played Michigan would smoke them again. We could put a little money on it if they meet up in the tournament.
I really don't have confidence in any Big 10 school. I would say if SDSU draws a 7 seed, and gets Ohio State or Illinois in the second round, I would think they have a great chance to beat either one of them. I don't know how good Michigan is because they have not played anyone out of conference, so it is tough to judge.
It is easy to judge Gonzaga because they had a tough schedule out of conference, and last nights BYU game was the perfect game to get them ready since BYU is very similar to SDSU, and will also be a very tough out.
Of course they are going to put at least 20 BIG 10 and BIG 12 schools in, so the law of averages says one of them is going to make it through. Even the Pac 12 is overrated and they will get 4 in. The MWC will get 3 if they are lucky, and Boise most likely just played there way out of it to or they could have been the 4th.
Villanova is tanking now that they lost one of their best players, so Creighton is really their only chance out of the Big East.
My gut tells me that the Big 10 is overrated, and 3/4 of them may not make it past the second round. They are all going to be over seeded, which is going to backfire on them. The Big 12 looks a little tougher, but Baylor is the cream of the crop, and will hit their stride again after having a month off due to covid.
I don't think it's necessary to play a tough out of conference to tell if a team is good. If you played a tough schedule it's pretty easy to tell if a team is good. Gonzaga overall has played a terrible schedule and Michigan has played one of the best schedules.
I wish Baylor and Gonzaga would have played earlier in the year as scheduled. I think a lot of the Gonzaga hype would have been sucked out after that game.
Gonzaga does have a viewer-friendly style of play though. It just isn't a very good style of play once you get to the tournament where the referees allow teams to be quite a bit more physical. That's also the reason I don't think they would have fared very well in the Big ten. Games in the Big ten are substantially more physical than in the WCC.
I don't think Gonzaga or Baylor make it to the second weekend. I'm high on the big ten schools. Depending how the brackets shake out there could be 2 or three big ten schools in the final four. Really like Illinois, Brad Underwood is a hell of a coach. I like Michigan they're battle tested. I feel like Iowa is going to be a tough matchup for anyone, they're built for March.
I think Houston has the best chance of any of the Texas schools to win it all. I think they will be the last Texas school standing.
I see Texas we make the deepest run of the big 12 schools. I think they make it to the elite 8.
San Diego State and Loyola have legit shots of getting to the final four.
I think Houston has the best chance of any of the Texas schools to win it all. I think they will be the last Texas school standing.
I see Texas we make the deepest run of the big 12 schools. I think they make it to the elite 8.
San Diego State and Loyola have legit shots of getting to the final four.
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Ok, instead of just throwing it out there and saying Gonzaga had a terrible out of conference schedule and Michigan had a great one without any facts backing that up, lets actually look at the facts:
Gonzaga played: Kansas, Auburn, West Virginia, Iowa and Virginia. Also scheduled Baylor.
Michigan played: BGSU, Oakland, Ball, UCF, and Toledo.
Illinois played: NC A&T, Chicago, Ohio, got creamed by the only good team Baylor, and Missouri
Ohio State played: Ill St, UML, Morehead, AAMU, Cleveland, UCLA and Notre Dame
Let's look at another WCC team BYU: They played USC, Utah State, Boise State, UTAH, and SDSU. All those are better than any Big 10 out of conference team that the above played outside of UCLA, who got destroyed by SDSU.
Just because you beat teams in your own conference means nothing if we do not know how good your conference really is. What is the proof that the Big 10 is really that good? If so, why are their RPI ratings so pathetic outside of Michigan? There is no proof, especially by judging from the pathetic out of conference schedule that Michigan had as well as the rest of the Big 10.
Gonzaga is the real deal, and has 5 players that will score in double figures. They have the best player in the nation on their team, and we have seen teams carried by only one player, and they have 7 to 8 good players to compliment him. They cruised to 99 points on Iowa, and Iowa never threatened them. Where was the physical defense giving up 99 points? They never gave up anything close to that in any Big 10 game.
As for Houston, they are in an extremely weak conference this year, but at least their out of conference schedule was better than any team in the Big 10, you have to give them that. But, they are a poor man's version of Gonzaga, and their seeding will be their downfall. Put them as an overrated 2, and they will be out in the second round.
I suggest looking at the RPI rankings and seeing that Michigan is 3rd, Gonzaga is 1st, and that the next big 10 school is 23rd.
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SDSU cannot score enough to make it to the final 4. That is their issue, as defensively they can smother you. They can get to the Sweet Sixteen this year, but it will be tough to make it further. Next year with 2 pros coming in and all the redshirts, they are easily an elite 8 team.
Yes, but RPI wise, Michigan is the only top 10 team at 3. The next Big 10 school is 23rd.
The RPI is the true measure based upon a team's wins and losses and its strength of schedule. The opponents' winning percentage and the winning percentage of those opponents' opponents both comprise the strength of schedule. Thus, the SOS accounts for 75% of the RPI calculation and is 2/3 its opponents' winning percentage and 1/3 its opponents' opponents' winning percentages.
NCAA College Basketball RPI Rankings (updated today)
NCAA college basketball RPI rankings and ratings for 2023, updated daily for all teams and available historically for every day of the 2023 season.
www.teamrankings.com
I never said that Michigan had a better out of conference schedule. I said Michigan had a better overall schedule. Also, I never said Iowa plays physical defense. I said the Big ten as a whole plays physical defense.
If you watch the Iowa game against Gonzaga you would know that Gonzaga never was in a position to put their backups in. Michigan had their backups in with 4 minutes left to go in the game and still beat the brakes off of Iowa.
If you look at the history of Gonzaga and the tournament, they almost always get knocked out by teams that play physical defense. Mark Few has not changed his style of play. So, it's a pretty good indicator that they'll lose to a team again that plays a physical style of defense.
Take a look at the below link. You will see Gonzaga much better than Michigan in offensive efficiency and is worse than Michigan in defensive efficiency. That's with them playing in a far inferior conference. You can see the strength of schedule on there as well. Gonzaga is substantially below Michigan.
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Gonzaga has been getting knocked out later of late. They've made the Elite Eight thrice since 2015 and the Finals once.
True, but the teams that beat them play a physical brand of basketball. Gonzaga is like the old Phoenix Suns when they were coached by Mike D'Antonio. They'll score a bunch of points but can't play any defense. As soon as they play somebody that gets up in their chest, it's curtains for them.
Tell you what Taco. I will bet you 20 dollars, or if you want to go bigger. I will take Gonzaga and you can have the field. I want 2-1 odds on that bet.
Or you can pick your 2 teams against Gonzaga, and whoever goes furthest wins 20 dollars (or more). Your call. I am assuming you will take Michigan and Baylor after reading your posts. Except the great Baylor lost to Oklahoma State, so you may want to reconsider.
Nothing that is put in front of you is going to change your mind, so we will let the tournament play out and I will collect my money.
Or you can pick your 2 teams against Gonzaga, and whoever goes furthest wins 20 dollars (or more). Your call. I am assuming you will take Michigan and Baylor after reading your posts. Except the great Baylor lost to Oklahoma State, so you may want to reconsider.
Nothing that is put in front of you is going to change your mind, so we will let the tournament play out and I will collect my money.
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Again, you are assuming the Big 10 is a great conference with that assumption being based head to head, not against anyone else. Therefore, if the teams are overrated, which I am believing, your assumption is going to be false. I don't have to do that with Gonzaga because they played a great schedule out of conference and beat everyone in front of them.
BYU is a very physical team, and Gonzaga has made the elite 8 in 2015, 2017, 2019. So whoever said they will be out by the second round, I would like to bet 1000 dollars. 2013 was the last year they did not make at least the Sweet Sixteen, with 3 Elite 8's and one final.
2019, they beat Baylor and lost to a non physical team in Texas Tech in the Elite 8.
2018, they lost to Florida State, who they beat in 2019, a non physical team.
2017 they lost to North Carolina in the finals, another non physical team
I am struggling to find a physical team that beat them. Not one Big 10 school has. Every Elite 8 year, it was not a physical team that beat them. This is a total myth that is out there.
Do you consider Virginia a physical team? I think beating the ACC champion is a greater feat than anything Michigan has done this year. Secondly, according to your Ken Pom ratings, Iowa is ranked ahead of Michigan. Well, Gonzaga beat them, so why is it hard to assume they wouldn't beat Michigan based upon your own rankings?
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I'm not sure what games you're watching if you think those teams aren't physical. Also, I'm pretty sure Michigan beat the brakes off of Gonzaga last year. Don't know why you say no big 10 team has beat them. We can definitely make a bet on the tournament.
Your out of your mind.... Baylor is a final four team .... before covid hit that team (8 players got the virus) they were almost unbeatable.... the big 12 is the best basketball conference .... and honestly I could be totally wrong but I don’t see Iowa getting too far ...
you do realize Oklahoma state is ranked 12th with probably a top 3 draft pick starting for them and Baylor had their worst shooting game is the year and still barely lost
