Telling #s from Geoff Ketchum of Rivals:
Understanding what a recruiting ranking means ...
It has turned into a life-long quest of mine to help everyone understand exactly what a recruiting ranking means, turning a pseudoscience into actual science, at least to the best degree that I can.
I'm unlikely to pull this off, if I'm being honest, but I'm going to continue to try ... in this column, in fact.
At its most simplistic level, here are the things you need to always remember.
a. Historical data shows that national top 75 players are on a night and day level distance apart from the rest of the pack when it comes to developing into difference-making players, the type that go on to be paid for their services after their college careers end.
b. Any prospect that isn't a national top 75-type player is much more likely to not end up as one of these types of players, with the likelihood of it happening decreasing with every step down in the ranking levels.
It's as simple as these results from the most recently completed NFL Draft cycle, which produced these numbers (Percentage of players per recruiting tier drafted by NFL teams):
Five-star (6.1) prospects: a. 83.16-percent.
High-four star (6.0) prospects: 30.47-percent
Mid-four star (5.9) prospects: 15.79-percent
Low-four star (5.8) prospects: 16.03-percent
High-three star (5.7) prospects: 8.59-percent
Mid-three star (5.6) prospects: 6.57-percent
Low-three star (5.5) prospects: 4.37-percent
High-two star (5.4) prospects: 1.69-percent
Mid-two star (5.3) prospects: 1.35-percent
Low-two star (5.6) prospects: 1.29-percent
Imagine going to Las Vegas and volunteering to play casino games with the same possible payout as other games, but with much longer odds of winning. The goal is to get the best possible payoff with the most-likely chance at earning that return.
That's why recruiting matters. The better you recruit, the more likely you're landing a prospect who develops into an NFL player at twice, three times or four times the rates of other prospects ranked below them.
The goal in recruiting is to acquire as many of the highest upside players as possible so that the math works in your favor. If you've got a group of five national top-250 prospects, the national average says that you're probably going to get one NFL player from the group. The programs that win championships find a way to over-perform against the numbers, producing two or three NFL-level players from that same group of five.
Understanding what a recruiting ranking means ...
It has turned into a life-long quest of mine to help everyone understand exactly what a recruiting ranking means, turning a pseudoscience into actual science, at least to the best degree that I can.
I'm unlikely to pull this off, if I'm being honest, but I'm going to continue to try ... in this column, in fact.
At its most simplistic level, here are the things you need to always remember.
a. Historical data shows that national top 75 players are on a night and day level distance apart from the rest of the pack when it comes to developing into difference-making players, the type that go on to be paid for their services after their college careers end.
b. Any prospect that isn't a national top 75-type player is much more likely to not end up as one of these types of players, with the likelihood of it happening decreasing with every step down in the ranking levels.
It's as simple as these results from the most recently completed NFL Draft cycle, which produced these numbers (Percentage of players per recruiting tier drafted by NFL teams):
Five-star (6.1) prospects: a. 83.16-percent.
High-four star (6.0) prospects: 30.47-percent
Mid-four star (5.9) prospects: 15.79-percent
Low-four star (5.8) prospects: 16.03-percent
High-three star (5.7) prospects: 8.59-percent
Mid-three star (5.6) prospects: 6.57-percent
Low-three star (5.5) prospects: 4.37-percent
High-two star (5.4) prospects: 1.69-percent
Mid-two star (5.3) prospects: 1.35-percent
Low-two star (5.6) prospects: 1.29-percent
Imagine going to Las Vegas and volunteering to play casino games with the same possible payout as other games, but with much longer odds of winning. The goal is to get the best possible payoff with the most-likely chance at earning that return.
That's why recruiting matters. The better you recruit, the more likely you're landing a prospect who develops into an NFL player at twice, three times or four times the rates of other prospects ranked below them.
The goal in recruiting is to acquire as many of the highest upside players as possible so that the math works in your favor. If you've got a group of five national top-250 prospects, the national average says that you're probably going to get one NFL player from the group. The programs that win championships find a way to over-perform against the numbers, producing two or three NFL-level players from that same group of five.
