People who are glass half empty all of the time drive me nuts. But so do people who are always glass half full. Personally, I like to try to objectively assess a situation, and then determine how well or how badly I think that things will go.
After the 2011-12 season I was extremely optimistic about the future. Our top two scorers were a sophomore (Bohanon) and a freshman (Washburn). We had some other freshman talent that looked promising (Lang, Cooper, Campbell). With the expected maturity of these players and another recruiting class coming in I told everyone who would listen that we were going to be really good the following season, and lights out in 2013-14, with a trip to the NCAA Tournament an almost sure bet. While the 2012-13 season didn't end up quite as well as I had hoped, I was still bullish on our 2013-14 prospects, with Hamilton, Hunter, and Speight set to join a veteran group. Obviously that season didn't work out as well I had expected either.
The point of the above is that I'm not always a glass half empty guy. I have been very optimistic on the prospects of several Miner basketball teams in the past. I just don't see how anyone can, given what we know right now, predict anywhere near 25 wins for next year's team.
As has been pointed out, we lose 4 out of our top 5 scorers. We lose three of our top four rebounders. We lose both our best interior defender (Lang) and best perimeter defender (Washburn). In fact, Washburn was the best defensive player in CUSA last year, and one of the best defensive players in the country. Three of our four key departures (Hunter, Lang, and Washburn) were far and away our best players last season.
So who do we have returning? Up front we have Willms and Vint. Is there anyone here truly impressed with Willms so far? In my eyes he has been far from the game changer that Floyd promised us when he recruited him. As far as Vint goes, while I do think he tries hard, he lacks talent, and is a huge liability on defense.
On the wing we do return Morris, which is a good thing. Morris had some absolutely huge games for us last year. Unfortunatley he also had some games werehe was a no show. Still, I expect some big things from him next year with a full season now under his belt.
In the backcourt we have Harris. He definitely showed some flashes of brillance last year; at other times he looked like a freshman. There is, of course, the old saying: "The best things about freshmen is that they become sophomores", and I think that there is a very good chance that Omega takes a big step forward next year. That is cerainly not guaranteed, however.
Of course we do have some redshirts returning that have seen time in a Miner uniform. The last time we saw Flaggert, he was a decent spot up shooter, but was scared to death of putting the ball on the floor. And Caldwell is a nice defender, but has absolutely no ofensive game.
We do have one newcomer with Div 1 experience, Artis, but I'm not as excited as some others. He obviously had great HS credentials, but what matters now is how he's performed in college, which has so far been mediocre at best. I hope that he becomes the superstar point guard that some here expect him to be, but it is far from a sure thing that he will.
Beyond those players mentioned above, everyone is pinning their hopes on players that have never played a single game at this level. There only reason that I can see for predicting 25 wins, or that we will in any way get better, is wishful thinking.
