What will happen to a school like UTEP under the potential rule changes?

[UTEPDefense]

I know that it is hard to fully answer this question now because nobody knows the exact details of what will happen, but assuming that the NCAA implements the California Rule Change(which is also now being proposed in 4 or 5 other states as well), is there any way that these upcoming rule changes might help a school like UTEP?, or will these rule changes just lead to mid-majors continuing to fall further and further behind?

The potential bad side:

The biggest thing that I fear will hurt a school like UTEP, is that it will become impossible for a mid-major school like us to keep our best players each year? The transfer portal will become full of under recruited out of high school mid-major players who proved themselves at the D1 level and now are ready to re-open their recruitment for the highest bidder. So we say good bye to ever seeing a Will Hernandez or Aaron Jones ever playing at UTEP for more than one season. For example, let’s say that UTEP comes across a Will Hernandez again in the future and let’s say that Texas A&M loses a few O-Linemen to graduation and/or NFL draft and they need a proven left guard. What will stop some Texas A&M booster(s) from offering a proven future NFL mid-major O-linemen like Will Hernandez $100,000 for an autograph signing if he transfers to A&M? Of course Will Hernandez will likely take the $100,000 and leave. My concern is that mid-majors will become like a minor league proving ground, where players will come to a school like UTEP and after playing here one or two years, our best players will enter the transfer portal and take the best deal they can get. Jordan Lathon was a former 4 star recruit who showed a lot of potential as a freshman this year and he had a great game at Marquette, so will a player like Lathon now enter the transfer portal after his freshman year and take a $20,000 deal from Marquette for his final 3 years? Just like how we will never be able to keep a great basketball coach from leaving us for a higher paying school, will we suddenly now not be able to keep our best football or basketball players after each season either?

Compared to other schools, a school like UTEP only has a limited amount of boosters/donors who can offer endorsement deals, so are we going to use our few endorsement deals only on basketball recruits since that sport requires fewer athletes? Will we just completely give upon football since we don’t have enough endorsement dollars for two sports? If so, then what will be the point of having a football program, when we can’t offer any/enough incentives to keep our best players after each season?

Also, since we are a Nike school, how will that impact us? Are we only going to be able to recruit guys who have signed with Nike or will sign with Nike? Can we no longer recruit anybody who is aligned with Addidas or Under Armor, etc.

 

[minermaniac2023]

Not sure about the other stuff, but for your last part. The California law has already thought of this and a kid cannot sign with another shoe company. UCLA is with Under Armour, Lonzo Ball can’t wear Big Baller stuff while playing for UCLA.

If you’re still in high school, you can’t sign a shoe deal as that would make you ineligible to play anywhere.

 

[UTEPy79]

Aside from LeBron James, who in high school has signed a shoe deal? I would guess if you're a high schooler and you sign a shoe deal, you're good enough to skip college ball and matriculate in the NBA.

 

[FeralFelidae]

Aside from LeBron James, who in high school has signed a shoe deal? I would guess if you're a high schooler and you sign a shoe deal, you're good enough to skip college ball and matriculate in the NBA.

Except that the NBA stopped allowing players fresh out of high school to enter the draft, which is why we currently have this horrible one-and-done epidemic that has made a mockery of the college game.

 

[UTEPDefense]

The one and done rule is likely to end around 2022, which is almost the same year that California’s new law is also supposed to go live. As a side note, the year that the NBA one and done rule comes to an end will theoretically result in a “double draft” worth of talent for that particular year as the best players from two consecutive years will become eligible in one draft(the one and done Freshmen from the prior year plus the top high school players from the next class.) NBA teams should be trying to stock pile draft picks for that particular draft.

 

[DBminer]

I expect a slow and painful death for the entire side of mid major programs

 

[minermaniac2023]

I expect a slow and painful death for the entire side of mid major programs

Nope. You think Alabama and USC want to play each other every week? There will always be room for smaller programs

 

[axingfools1]

The one and done rule is likely to end around 2022, which is almost the same year that California’s new law is also supposed to go live. As a side note, the year that the NBA one and done rule comes to an end will theoretically result in a “double draft” worth of talent for that particular year as the best players from two consecutive years will become eligible in one draft(the one and done Freshmen from the prior year plus the top high school players from the next class.) NBA teams should be trying to stock pile draft picks for that particular draft.

I dont think there will be that many high schoolers ready to go straight to the NBA. The ones that are will just move everybody behind them back 1-2 spots.

 

[minermx07]

It's not like UTEP is living some dream. Perhaps, a more free-market, open system will help UTEP prosper (by UTEP standards).

 

[DBminer]

Nope. You think Alabama and USC want to play each other every week? There will always be room for smaller programs

I am saying our recruiting talent will probably get even worse in both sports

 

[MinerInWisconsin]

I believe that 2 and 3 star players that prove themselves better than that at mid-majors or G5 schools will be enticed by endorsement money to transfer up. Other than that, I think unless the 85 scholarship rule in fb and 13 in mbb are done away with, we will end up with about the same athletes we have now. jmho

 

[UTEPDefense]

I believe that 2 and 3 star players that prove themselves better than that at mid-majors or G5 schools will be enticed by endorsement money to transfer up. Other than that, I think unless the 85 scholarship rule in fb and 13 in mbb are done away with, we will end up with about the same athletes we have now. jmho

This my fear as well, it might not impact us as much in high school recruiting, since we will likely be recruiting the level of players that don't get endorsements, but it will potentially hurt us in trying to keep our best players after each season. We have rarely had the risk of our players leaving early for the NFL/NBA(maybe once every 10 years or so), but I could now see our best Freshman and Sophomores now entering the transfer portal to see if they can get a better offer, after first proving that they were under recruited here at a mid-major.

 

[picks up]

This my fear as well, it might not impact us as much in high school recruiting, since we will likely be recruiting the level of players that don't get endorsements, but it will potentially hurt us in trying to keep our best players after each season. We have rarely had the risk of our players leaving early for the NFL/NBA(maybe once every 10 years or so), but I could now see our best Freshman and Sophomores now entering the transfer portal to see if they can get a better offer, after first proving that they were under recruited here at a mid-major.

We are essentially going to become a JuCo

 

[UTEPDefense]

We are essentially going to become a JuCo

I agree and in some ways a school like ours might be at an even greater risk of this because our top 5 football players each year might be good, but they are probably not good enough to get drafted into the NFL. This will create even more urgency for them to capitalize financially on their football talent while they can. That means them transferring and trying to make the most money while they can while in college.

Remember when Arnette Moultrie had family members in his ear starting his freshman year trying to get him to turn pro. I could see this scenario becoming more and more common(but with lesser talented kids), as instead of family members pushing kids to turn pro, they will now be trying to push them to go to a different college that has more endorsement deals/money.

Again, nobody knows how this will all actually be implemented, but it is certainly moving in this direction. I am not even against kids being able to make the most money while they can, I would just love to see a way for this to be implemented in a way that doesn't essentially end my favorite program(UTEP) from playing D1 sports.

 

[JCorona]

I’m more worried about the capabilities of our coaching staff to bring FBS talent to our team.

We supposedly had FCS talent on our team. We’re not seeing a bunch of true freshmen players distinguishing themselves from ”Kugler’s FCS talent.”

I don’t see ourselves finding too much, if any, P5 talent that everyone else overlooked.

 

[UTEPDefense]

That is a valid point, but the counter-point is that Dimel has signed 9 3-star high school recruits in his two year's here(1 last year and 8 this year) according to 247 sports and we have not seen any of them play yet(1 left the program and 8 are currently being redshirted).

 

[JCorona]

That is a valid point, but the counter-point is that Dimel has signed 9 3-star high school recruits in his two year's here(1 last year and 8 this year) according to 247 sports and we have not seen any of them play yet(1 left the program and 8 are currently being redshirted).

That’s my point. If they’re not seeing the field now as freshmores against a weak roster then we might never see any freshmen or sophomores get significant time once Dimel’s recruiting classes have replaced all of Kugler’s players.

 

[FeralFelidae]

We have rarely had the risk of our players leaving early for the NFL/NBA(maybe once every 10 years or so),

Well, Floyd sure had a lot of players leave early to try for the NBA. Some of them even eventually made it, a few years later. (None of them got drafted, of course.)

 

[UTEPDefense]

Well, Floyd sure had a lot of players leave early to try for the NBA. Some of them even eventually made it, a few years later. (None of them got drafted, of course.)

If I remember correctly, Floyd had 2 players leave early for the Pro's(Hunter and Moore). I wouldn't call 2 players "a lot".

 

[utep2step]

I hate to use this example but as people from Ciudad Juarez say, "legalize all you want (in the USA)", it will not hurt the cartels in Mexico and Juarez". Profits will take a bite but they now provide more potent synthetic and dangerous pills or whatever.

Kentuck, Virginia, Duke are the giants and a title goes through the east, no matter what California does.