2017’s projected 130-team college football rankings, from Bama through UAB - SBNation.com
- Thread starter unihorn
- Start date
How in the world is a team that has not played a down of FBS football already ranked ahead of UTEP?
I think this ranking uses a mix of returning players + recruiting class impact.
In other words, it's a glorified guess.
It is a guess since no one has played a down in 2017 but if UTEP ends up anywhere near that bad after this coming season, Kugler has to go. In fact, any self respecting college program would let him go if he doesn't have a winning season in his 5th year.
A lot of people call the recruiting rankings useless-- but when it's all said and done the higher ranked teams usually finish at the top and the lower ranked teams usually finish at the bottom.
It's not a perfect science, but it's definitely s good barometer of where the talent level of your team stacks up against the competition
It's not a perfect science, but it's definitely s good barometer of where the talent level of your team stacks up against the competition
The author identified his methodology as a weighted average of 1) returning O&D production, 2) recent history, and 3) recent recruiting classes. Precise? Hardly. A "glorified guess"? Hardly. You may not like the results, but the methodology is not unreasonable. But you can't just lick your finger and hold it up in the air.
Perhaps an alternative way to view this data is by quartiles, each quartile comprised of about 35 teams. Realistically, whether your team is ranked #126 or #110 is probably less important than if you think they can break into the 3rd quartile nationally this season, or inside #100, which would certainly represent progress.
Regardless of your methodology, UTEP will face the top four teams in C-USA this season (three on the road), all ranked in either the second or third national quartile, according to SB Nation, generally a respected publication. And remember, Phil Steele actually had UTEP labeled as a dark horse in C-USA West last season. Wouldn't expect a bone from him this year.
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Nice post, unihorn.
I like CK's philosophy of getting kids who have character and a hard work ethic....but he absolutely HAS to couple that with better "talent", especially at the skill positions.
I like CK's philosophy of getting kids who have character and a hard work ethic....but he absolutely HAS to couple that with better "talent", especially at the skill positions.
Without question, Kugler has utilized the GreyShirt process to build his program more than any coach in UTEP history. Additionally, he has also used the Red Shirt Program as much as any coach in UTEP history(tied with what Nord built). When you build your program using these two options as heavily as Kugler has, then this becomes a very long-term approach that can take 4 or 5 years to build the experienced base of depth that is needed at every position. The on-field results from last season were not where they should have been, but we are just now reaching the point where investing 6 years(grey shirt) and 5 years(red shirt) in our recruits should begin paying off. And the good news is that if this approach works, then the results should continue to be relatively consistent going forward, because after so many years of building the foundation, we should begin reaching the point where every season we will have 5th and 6th year players at every unit. If you are unable to recruit 3 or 4 star players consistently(which nobody has ever been able to do at UTEP), then this 6 year Grey Shirt/Red Shirt process is the next best option and that is exactly what Kugler has been doing.
Additionally, what Kugler has done very well is rebalance the scholarships and start building depth at every position. Not to criticize the prior staff, but before Kugler arrived there was one season where we had to switch a QB over late to become our starting MLB because we had nobody better. We also had to start a 5'10" walk-on at DT during one of Price's final season's because we had no other options. This has been mentioned before, but when Kugler arrived, UTEP had more WR's on scholarship than Defensive Lineman(and to make it worse, this was when we used a 4 d-lineman front). After staying disciplined to building this program, UTEP now has balanced depth across all units on both sides of the ball. Here is a list of only the scholarship underclassmen currently within our program on just the defensive side of the ball:
Safety: Kolbi McGary, Michael Lewis, Joseph Pickney, Eric Foster, Kalaii Griffin.
CB: Justin Rogers, Brodericks Harrell, Tyson Wilson, Jerrell Brown.
LB: Jason Van Hook, Dylan Parsee, Chris Barnwell, Dedrick Simpson, S. Tupou, J. Tupoa, Stehen Forester, Kobie Herring, Brent Ugochukwu, Javaugn Thomas,
DE: Gene Hopkins, Keith Sullivan, Christian Johnson, Josh Ortega, Trace Mascorro, Josh Wells.
NG: Chris Richardson, Tiano Tialavea, Denzel Chukwukelu.
A lot of people were speculating that Kugler would panic and bring in a bunch of JC players during this recruiting class. But instead of sacrificing what was best for the long term of our program, he instead stayed disciplined and he only brought in 4 JC players this year, with one of them having 3 years of eligibility. I agree that Kugler is beginning to run out of time to produce results on the field, but I do think that if he were to leave UTEP at this moment, that he would be leaving UTEP in a similar situation that Nord left for Price, which is a bunch of talent developed/developing at every position. Like everybody, I would like to see more stars on our recruits and more play makers in the passing game. But the fact that the UTEP football program continues to reach all-time program high's in APR scores and the player retention continues to remain at an extremely high level as well, are further examples in my opinion of why this process has a chance to eventually pay-off on the field as well.
Additionally, what Kugler has done very well is rebalance the scholarships and start building depth at every position. Not to criticize the prior staff, but before Kugler arrived there was one season where we had to switch a QB over late to become our starting MLB because we had nobody better. We also had to start a 5'10" walk-on at DT during one of Price's final season's because we had no other options. This has been mentioned before, but when Kugler arrived, UTEP had more WR's on scholarship than Defensive Lineman(and to make it worse, this was when we used a 4 d-lineman front). After staying disciplined to building this program, UTEP now has balanced depth across all units on both sides of the ball. Here is a list of only the scholarship underclassmen currently within our program on just the defensive side of the ball:
Safety: Kolbi McGary, Michael Lewis, Joseph Pickney, Eric Foster, Kalaii Griffin.
CB: Justin Rogers, Brodericks Harrell, Tyson Wilson, Jerrell Brown.
LB: Jason Van Hook, Dylan Parsee, Chris Barnwell, Dedrick Simpson, S. Tupou, J. Tupoa, Stehen Forester, Kobie Herring, Brent Ugochukwu, Javaugn Thomas,
DE: Gene Hopkins, Keith Sullivan, Christian Johnson, Josh Ortega, Trace Mascorro, Josh Wells.
NG: Chris Richardson, Tiano Tialavea, Denzel Chukwukelu.
A lot of people were speculating that Kugler would panic and bring in a bunch of JC players during this recruiting class. But instead of sacrificing what was best for the long term of our program, he instead stayed disciplined and he only brought in 4 JC players this year, with one of them having 3 years of eligibility. I agree that Kugler is beginning to run out of time to produce results on the field, but I do think that if he were to leave UTEP at this moment, that he would be leaving UTEP in a similar situation that Nord left for Price, which is a bunch of talent developed/developing at every position. Like everybody, I would like to see more stars on our recruits and more play makers in the passing game. But the fact that the UTEP football program continues to reach all-time program high's in APR scores and the player retention continues to remain at an extremely high level as well, are further examples in my opinion of why this process has a chance to eventually pay-off on the field as well.
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Wow. Just wow. The absolute, most Brett Bloomquist-esq post I've seen since Sean Kugler starting drawing a UTEP paycheck...
What UTEPDefense said makes sense. It's no coincidence that not even an ex national coach of the year could produce a winning season after Nord's recruiting classes ended.
LaserCoog, and this is why we have message boards. I view things one way as a fan, you see things one way as a fan, and then we meet here to discuss.
No UTEP Coach in the past 50+ years has been able to produce 2 winning seasons here that were more than one year apart from eachother. Furthermore, no UTEP Football Coach in the past 60+ seasons has produced a winning season after their 3rd year at UTEP. Like JCorona mentioned, not even the former National Coach of the Year could accomplish this. I don't think my post is completely unreasonable as Kugler is trying to accomplish something that nobody has done here in the past half century. Therefore, of course we are not going to see smooth or easy growth, of course there will be some set backs, but I do think there are enough foundation blocks being built to warrant a little more time. But that is just my opinion.
No UTEP Coach in the past 50+ years has been able to produce 2 winning seasons here that were more than one year apart from eachother. Furthermore, no UTEP Football Coach in the past 60+ seasons has produced a winning season after their 3rd year at UTEP. Like JCorona mentioned, not even the former National Coach of the Year could accomplish this. I don't think my post is completely unreasonable as Kugler is trying to accomplish something that nobody has done here in the past half century. Therefore, of course we are not going to see smooth or easy growth, of course there will be some set backs, but I do think there are enough foundation blocks being built to warrant a little more time. But that is just my opinion.
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UTEP is what it is. We will never be a Boise State who has had sustained success for years. Winning at UTEP comes every 10 years or so. UTEP will string a couple of winning seasons together, along with a couple of bowl game appearances (losses), and our head coach will leave for greener pastures. We will then hire another coach who needs at least 5 to 6 years to implement his plan. We continue to lose while this plan is in progress. In year 6 we win 6 games and the coach gets a contract extension (unless they leave), because he is on edge of greatness and we don't want to lose him. The following year we go back to 3 or 4 wins. Three years later we are still hoping to "turn the corner" but it doesn't happen. Stull finally breaks ties with his coach after 8 years and we start over again. Until we can pay a good proven coach a salary that will make them want to stay, this cycle will continue.
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Not that I agree with him but Bill Conelly puts in hours upon hours of research into these pieces. I've read his articles for years. I wouldn't automatically dismiss all the work he did simply because he ranked NMSU two spots ahead of UTEP.
And I knew I could count on you to point it out. I get it. I was being a bit sarcastic. It's all good. I guess it was a Captain Obvious post on my part.
