Several observations...
1) Given your previously stated opinion that UTEP football is "on the cusp of greatness", your disagreement with these predictions is, well, predictable. But your characterization of Bill Connelly and SBNation as "lazy" is a reach. Disagree if you must, but discrediting reputable sources is bad form.
2) In three years under Kugler, with few exceptions, UTEP has struggled against teams with similar or inferior talent (NMSU, UTSA, Incarnate Word, etc.) and been absolutely hammered by teams with superior talent, C-USA and OOC. Kugler has no control over his schedule, no matter how weak, but his team has complete control over their on-field performance. A truly realistic measure of program progress will be when UTEP starts to drill teams they should beat and stops losing to everybody else by basketball scores.
3) UTEP is a tough pre-season read. Probably improved at some positions, but a complete question mark at the most important position on the field is hardly a plus. And you may catch lightning in a bottle, but first year coordinators with completely revamped schemes may be a cause for optimism but it usually ends up being a crap shoot. Beyond that, the schedule is glactically soft (maybe the easiest in the nation), the Miners could literally win 7,8, 9 football games next season without beating a team with a winning record. Again, UTEP is a tough preseason read.
4) Connelly's UTEP pick at #4 in C-USA West looks about right from here. Again, it's preseason, Rice is reloading, going up-tempo, and had 33 freshmen (pure and rs) last year, Tech is rebuilding but it's still Tech. Plus, both are UTEP road games and the Miners are historically bad on the road, especially in Houston. Both games have "opportunity" written all over them for UTEP, real potential barometers for gauging program improvement.
5) SBNation lists Kugler as #3 on the C-USA hot seat list. That seems a stretch, given the performance bar set by Bob Stull for Tim Floyd and UTEP's basketball program. Plus, some fans seem to have given Kugler a mulligan for two of his first three seasons, but hiring new coordinators on both sides of the ball going into your fourth season is hardly a signal that all is well in sparkle city. Bottom line, after four years, it's all on Kugler. No excuses. Put a clearly improved product on the field - and not just Ws against diluted competition - or expect increasingly dismal crowds, increased apathy, and head-shakes from even the most die-hard supporters.