ESPN+ low mid major bubble watch:
Low Mid-Majors (Atlantic 10, C-USA, Missouri Valley)
This last group of conferences is traditionally right on the border of who gets an at-large bid. (A season ago, only one of them -- the A-10 -- got more than its conference champ into the tournament field.) This season, the BPI forecast is calling for 3.3 tourney entries from this group, meaning there's little daylight for an at-large case to be made out of this group of squads.
Who might buck that trend? VCU has the best tourney odds overall, with 14% of that 52% mark coming from its chance at an at-large bid. But
MVC leaders Drake (39th) and Bradley (56th) actually rank higher in SOR than the Rams (60th) do. None have played any top-50 games by BPI, but that trio is a combined 6-5 against top-100 opponents. And then, Liberty has by far the strongest tourney odds of any Conference USA team -- though practically all of that is wrapped up in its probability of winning the conference tournament.
Bubble Watch spotlight: VCU. Coach Ryan Odom and the Rams rank 49th in BPI, which normally would be good enough to at least make a run at an at-large tourney bid, but VCU has also lost some close games it shouldn't have (most notably against Seton Hall in late November and St. Bonaventure on New Year's Eve). That leaves its résumé stats in a precarious place without many more chances to boost them -- VCU's best remaining game probably comes at Dayton on Feb. 7. This puts pressure on the Rams to win the A-10 title and not have to hope they're in a multibid league.
The Enigma: Drake. As mentioned above, the Bulldogs rank 39th in SOR -- ahead of literally dozens of power-conference programs -- and they have a 3-0 record against BPI top-100 opponents. (They beat Vanderbilt, for instance, which just knocked off Tennessee.) While Drake won't have too many more chances to boost its résumé, it could force the committee to give it a look if it just keeps winning. The question is, can it? In contrast with that gaudy SOR ranking, the Bulldogs are 85th in BPI and have a 2% chance of winning out over the rest of their schedule, despite that slate ranking only 142nd toughest in the nation. That's why Drake is a great example of a team that would potentially make the tourney if the season ended today but faces an uphill climb to make it in reality.
Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work to Do: VCU (52%), Bradley (44%), Liberty (42%), Drake (29%), Dayton (24%)
Outside Looking In (capped at five teams): George Mason (23%), MTSU (15%), Louisiana Tech (13%), Murray St (13%), Saint Joseph's (11%)