Let's go over it again for this year: Lunardi doesn't predict the champion from one bid conferences. It's simply who is in 1st place at the time of his projection. Is he saying he thinks UTEP is going to win the tournament? That UTEP will be the autobid? Probably get the autobid? Deserves to get the autobid? No. He's only saying that as of today, UTEP is currently in first place in CUSA. That's it. So, he thinks a middle of the pack, somewhere around .500 team in CUSA would just barely be worse than one of the WAC favorites.
If you were to ask him, I'm sure he'd say La Tech, MT, or UAB would be the favorite and probably somewhere between an 11-13 seed.