I don’t know, hard to say. I think he’s just reporting those are the “backups” or teams 9-10 or 11-12.
Let’s say, the Pac 12 does take them both and AFA leaves to the AAC. That leaves 5 of them and again, those teams need to be a conference for a few years to collect the exit fees.
Theoretically, a school like UNM could join the AAC, but they would be losing out on that P12 money, paying an exit fee to the MWC, and then joining an AAC without Memphis, Tulane, possibly UTSA, and USF. Is it worth it at that point?
The remaining schools kinda have to invite UTEP, NMSU, and whoever else is willing to join at the point.
At worst, UTEP is still in CUSA with MWC leftovers or CUSA remains untouched and nothing changes. There’s really no scenario where UTEP ends up worse off.