Hello UTEP Fans,
As a person who grew up in El Paso for the first 10 years of my life, there is and always will be a special place in my heart for UTEP. I went to Miner games well before I went to my first Tech game. That being said, I wish you all nothing but the best of luck in next Saturday's tilt. Also, safe travels heading over to Lubbock for those of you who will be attending the game.
Now onto some insights. Here are some observations that may not stick out when you look at the numbers but I can promise you are accurate regarding TTU's play last week.
1. The TTU defense was built to get turnovers. When you see how many yards they gave up, you would think that they lost. However, 4 turnovers (5 if you include a turnover on downs) gives the ball back to the offense which I must say looks about as potent as I have ever seen. This team will gladly give up 80 yards in exchange for a goal line interception or fumble recovery. I will also mention that both yards and points were reduced by over 50% in the 2nd half. All of our turnovers were in the 2nd half as well which was probably a primary reason for the other two stats.
2. The scoreboard is deceiving. Last weekend's game was a lot further apart than the score appeared. It was a 28 point lead for TTU going into the 4th. There were at least 2 TDs passes dropped by TTU WRs which should not be expected to happen regularly. When I say dropped I mean just that. The ball hit them in the hands, uncontested and in stride and they couldn't bring it in. Also, by the time the 4th quarter came around, TTU had put in its bench which gave up 2 TDs and the offense ran the remaining clock out. Realistically, the game should have been somewhere in the 70's for points for TTU and a 31-38 point game for SHSU.
3. The rushing success SHSU had was more tied to the TTU LBs misreading their lanes than it was the DL for TTU getting blown off the ball. That being said and in all fairness, UTEP's line is probably 30lbs per man larger on average than SHSU so I expect them to get an even better push.
4. SHSU is currently ranked #1 in FCS polls. Not using that as an excuse but it does suggest that they were no cupcake or punching bag. They have several FBS transfers from large programs playing for them. They will be a playoff team at the end of the season and have a legitimate chance of winning a national championship.
Regarding next week's game, here is what I see each team has to do to come out as a winner:
UTEP Strategy:
- Run the ball every down. Maybe throw in a play action every 10 runs to keep the D honest. Even if the D starts to load the box, run the ball until they show they can keep you under 4 YPC. Even if you are behind by one or two scores, run the ball!
- Use every second of the play clock.
- Take points however you can get them. You don't have to go toe-to-toe with TTU in a shootout. If you control the clock and the ball bounces your way a couple times, a field goal might be the difference.
- Protect the ball. As I mentioned above, the D is built for turnovers. If you protect the ball, you will get yards and you will move down the field efficiently.
- Avoid penalties where possible. This may sound obvious but without an "explosive" passing offense, penalties (holding, personal fouls, false starts, etc.) can really hurt a running team.
TTU Strategy:
- Make UTEP pass. This means sell-out on the run with safeties in the box and go man on man on the outside WRs. TTU has some pretty salty CBs and are used to going one on one with some high caliber WRs in practice. This won't be anything new to them.
- Avoid penalties. TTU has been terrible with penalties over the past several seasons. We have seen some recent improvement but until it becomes consistent, they will be a problem.
- Get ahead early. Considering how good UTEP is at running the ball, it makes the most sense to try and get out to an early lead and try to force UTEP to get away from their comfort zone of running the ball. If TTU can get UTEP into a shootout or a catch-up style of play, that is right where they want them.
- Force some turnovers and capitalize on them. It doesn't matter if its a fumble or INT, TTU should look to get some early turnovers to help them pad a lead and force UTEP to get away from their ground strategy.
Final Prediction - UTEP 24 - TTU 49
I think the game stays close through the first 1.5 quarters with tech going into the half up 17-21. In the 2nd half, I see TTU getting 2 turnovers and converting those to touchdowns which will put them up by 3 scores and force UTEP to pass the ball. This will cause several three and out scenarios which will give TTU the opportunity to further pad their lead and then run out the clock late in the 4th quarter.
As a person who grew up in El Paso for the first 10 years of my life, there is and always will be a special place in my heart for UTEP. I went to Miner games well before I went to my first Tech game. That being said, I wish you all nothing but the best of luck in next Saturday's tilt. Also, safe travels heading over to Lubbock for those of you who will be attending the game.
Now onto some insights. Here are some observations that may not stick out when you look at the numbers but I can promise you are accurate regarding TTU's play last week.
1. The TTU defense was built to get turnovers. When you see how many yards they gave up, you would think that they lost. However, 4 turnovers (5 if you include a turnover on downs) gives the ball back to the offense which I must say looks about as potent as I have ever seen. This team will gladly give up 80 yards in exchange for a goal line interception or fumble recovery. I will also mention that both yards and points were reduced by over 50% in the 2nd half. All of our turnovers were in the 2nd half as well which was probably a primary reason for the other two stats.
2. The scoreboard is deceiving. Last weekend's game was a lot further apart than the score appeared. It was a 28 point lead for TTU going into the 4th. There were at least 2 TDs passes dropped by TTU WRs which should not be expected to happen regularly. When I say dropped I mean just that. The ball hit them in the hands, uncontested and in stride and they couldn't bring it in. Also, by the time the 4th quarter came around, TTU had put in its bench which gave up 2 TDs and the offense ran the remaining clock out. Realistically, the game should have been somewhere in the 70's for points for TTU and a 31-38 point game for SHSU.
3. The rushing success SHSU had was more tied to the TTU LBs misreading their lanes than it was the DL for TTU getting blown off the ball. That being said and in all fairness, UTEP's line is probably 30lbs per man larger on average than SHSU so I expect them to get an even better push.
4. SHSU is currently ranked #1 in FCS polls. Not using that as an excuse but it does suggest that they were no cupcake or punching bag. They have several FBS transfers from large programs playing for them. They will be a playoff team at the end of the season and have a legitimate chance of winning a national championship.
Regarding next week's game, here is what I see each team has to do to come out as a winner:
UTEP Strategy:
- Run the ball every down. Maybe throw in a play action every 10 runs to keep the D honest. Even if the D starts to load the box, run the ball until they show they can keep you under 4 YPC. Even if you are behind by one or two scores, run the ball!
- Use every second of the play clock.
- Take points however you can get them. You don't have to go toe-to-toe with TTU in a shootout. If you control the clock and the ball bounces your way a couple times, a field goal might be the difference.
- Protect the ball. As I mentioned above, the D is built for turnovers. If you protect the ball, you will get yards and you will move down the field efficiently.
- Avoid penalties where possible. This may sound obvious but without an "explosive" passing offense, penalties (holding, personal fouls, false starts, etc.) can really hurt a running team.
TTU Strategy:
- Make UTEP pass. This means sell-out on the run with safeties in the box and go man on man on the outside WRs. TTU has some pretty salty CBs and are used to going one on one with some high caliber WRs in practice. This won't be anything new to them.
- Avoid penalties. TTU has been terrible with penalties over the past several seasons. We have seen some recent improvement but until it becomes consistent, they will be a problem.
- Get ahead early. Considering how good UTEP is at running the ball, it makes the most sense to try and get out to an early lead and try to force UTEP to get away from their comfort zone of running the ball. If TTU can get UTEP into a shootout or a catch-up style of play, that is right where they want them.
- Force some turnovers and capitalize on them. It doesn't matter if its a fumble or INT, TTU should look to get some early turnovers to help them pad a lead and force UTEP to get away from their ground strategy.
Final Prediction - UTEP 24 - TTU 49
I think the game stays close through the first 1.5 quarters with tech going into the half up 17-21. In the 2nd half, I see TTU getting 2 turnovers and converting those to touchdowns which will put them up by 3 scores and force UTEP to pass the ball. This will cause several three and out scenarios which will give TTU the opportunity to further pad their lead and then run out the clock late in the 4th quarter.
