That is not surprising:
Look at Illinois resume:
Only non conference wins: Jackson State, Ark St, UT Rio Grande, and St. Francis.
Non Conference losses: Marquette, Cinn, Arizona.
They did not beat a decent out of conference opponent all year. I had them going out in this game, as last year it was exactly the same. An extremely weak non conference schedule.
Another Big 10 School:
Iowa:
Wins: Longwood, KC, NC Cent, Ala St, W Mich, Port St, SE Louisiana, W. Ill, Utah St, Virginia
Losses: Iowa St.
Is it really surprising that these teams go out early? I have only put up 2 Big 10 examples, I could go on.