It's true that I don't absolutely know that Tang would be a successful head coach at UTEP. I believe that he would be, but the only way to absolutely know would be for him to get the job and give him time to build the program. Here's something that's also true: you don't absolutely know if Golding, DeVries, or Jans would be successful at UTEP. Success for a coach at one school doesn't always equate to success at another.
I thought at the times that the two biggest slam dunk hires in recent UTEP history were Mike Price and Tim Floyd. As you know, typically when hiring a coach you have two options: hire a hot shot assistant from a bigger school, or hire a successful coach from a smaller school. If a team has been successful, they might go with a third option, promote from within the program. With Price and Floyd, however, we had a rare option: hire a successful coach from a bigger school.
Price won the PAC-10 Coach of the Year twice at Washington State, took the Cougars to the Rose Bowl twice, and was named the NCAA Coach of the Year in 1997. No coaching hire at UTEP had ever seemed more like a sure thing. After his first year here, where we almost beat Colorado in the Houston Bowl, it seemed like this belief was justified. But as more of Gary Nord's players graduated, and we had to rely on Price's recruits, the more it became obvious that he wasn't going to be able to truly turn our program around.
I was sitting at my desk at work when I learned that Tim Floyd was hired; my co-workers came rushing to my desk to see if anything was wrong, mistaking my screams of joy for a sign that there was something wrong. Floyd, like Price, seemed like a sure thing, but even more so. Floyd had won at all of his college stops: smaller schools, like Idaho and New Orleans, and bigger schools, like Iowa State and USC. Moreover, he knew how to recruit to El Paso, bringing in many of players that made us so successful in the 80s. UTEP Basketball was certainly on its way back to prominence. Except it wasn't. Floyd, to the dismay of most of us here, never came close to matching the success he had achieved at all of his other college stops.
We could go back and forth, with you giving examples of successful coaches at smaller schools becoming successful at bigger schools, and examples of hot shot assistants flaming out when they got their chance to be a head coach. I could counter with lists of former assistant coaches becoming successful when they got a head gig, and successful head coaches at one school failing when they get a job at a different school.
In the end, I feel that Tang, Golding, and DeVries are all really good options, while Jans and Barbee are solid choices. You believe that Golding is the best choice, DeVries and Jans are really good options, and that hiring Tang is too risky. No matter what, we want the next coach to succeed. Let's hope that Senter makes the right choice.