Rice @ UTEP (Bonus Time)
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Well, we made the NY Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/02/22/sports/ncaabasketball/bc-bkc-rice-utep.html
https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/02/22/sports/ncaabasketball/bc-bkc-rice-utep.html
Good win, I caught the 2nd half and on my phone. Saw they were down huge, but wow Edwards! He went off with some major confidence! It lit the Miners ass on fire! They need that, I too don't know if they will use this to win another game or 2... But it's nice to get a win! Go Miners!
I think Hawkins is 90% gone. Dont be surprised if he transfers to Houston.
Edwards was in the zone and then some. Giving the rightful evil eye to refs (IMO, for B$ Williams calls that took Williams out).
I have seen Hardaway, Juden Smith, Antoine Gillespie, Stone, and recent greats play ABOVE the game. Edwards did tonight. It was magical. Think about it? Go score 32 against your teenager in a pickup. It's hard.
This race is going to go down to the last game of the season in Houston. A win next Sunday vs USM still doesn’t lock anything in. We could use some help from MTSU to beat RICE that day. We’re going to have to win on the road, no other way around it, or we will be at home for the second year in a row.
"Has anyone else noticed lathon can’t shoot worth a damn from outside but he does have a pretty decent midrange game ? Or am I seeing things"
He needs to go towards the basket or shoot off the dribble, he is not a set up shooter by any means. His release and shooting motion are completely different then when he shoots off the drive.
He needs to go towards the basket or shoot off the dribble, he is not a set up shooter by any means. His release and shooting motion are completely different then when he shoots off the drive.
I think we beat the hottest team in CUSA, well at least according to RICE fans. From their message board.
2020 Conference USA Men's Baketball Performance Ratings
There is some evidence that Rice's men's basketball team has been playing well as of late. The Owls have won four of their last five games, including victories over two of the Pod 1 teams, and the only loss was by just three points. I've tried to quantify this performance by using the performance ratings I developed from Kenneth Massey's ratings system and comparing Rice's rating to those of the other Conference USA members. I'm not doing this for the entire season; that would take far too long to compile, and I'm more interested in recent performance anyway. I decided to do it for the last ten regular-season games for each team to see how things appear going into the conference tournament. Of course, the final four games for the teams have yet to be played, so I'm going to compile the results for the last six games before Bonus Play for each team and update them over the course of the last four games.
For those unfamiliar with the performance rating, it's calculated for a particular game result by using what Massey calls the "power rating" for an opponent plus the final margin of the game adjusted for home court. For example, in Rice's recent game against Charlotte, to figure the Owls' performance rating for the game, one takes the 49ers' power rating (31.93) and add to it the score margin (Rice won 70-54, a margin of +16) adjusted for the Owls' home-court advantage (3.89, in this case subtracting because it's a home game; for road games, the opponent's home-court advantage is added to the rating). In this case, the performance rating is 31.93 + 16 -3.89 = 44.04.
Here's what the results look like for the 14 C-USA schools over their last six games each. I've calculated the median and mean performance ratings and the standard deviation of the mean ratings, and sorted by median rating:
Team, Median, Mean, Standard Deviation
Rice 39.58 37.51 10.64
Florida International 39.31 34.59 10.45
Old Dominion 38.82 35.71 8.68
Marshall 38.66 34.84 11.77
North Texas 36.16 36.25 7.29
Alabama-Birmingham 35.06 33.90 12.42
Western Kentucky 35.05 35.25 7.22
Louisiana Tech 31.72 34.16 4.57
Southern Mississippi 30.96 29.82 7.79
Florida Atlantic 29.97 31.70 10.48
Charlotte 29.90 28.84 6.22
Texas-San Antonio 29.12 28.78 9.91
Middle Tennessee 28.18 26.68 8.87
Texas-El Paso 19.64 21.86 6.92
It looks like the impression about Rice playing well lately is correct - the Owls have the highest median (and mean) rating in the conference. That bodes well for the Owls in the upcoming conference tournament. Rice also gets a break due to the vagaries of scheduling for Bonus Play - the Owls get UTEP twice, by this measure the team in the biggest slump in C-USA currently. The Miners' last good game by performance rating was their win over the Owls; since then, UTEP has lost six of its last seven, and the lone victory was at home by one point over cellar-dweller MTSU.
Of course, there are caveats to consider. Looking at the median and mean ratings, one can see that the spread is not that big, and considering the standard deviations, there isn't really much of a difference between any of the teams (except possibly UTEP). While the trends say Rice should do pretty well over the last four regular-season games and the conference tournament, actually doing it is something else. The teams are close enough so that one could really make a case for almost anyone to win the tournament. We also can't put the cart before the horse; technically, Rice hasn't even qualified for the tournament yet. Looking at the numbers, the only Bonus Play game that could give the Owls trouble is the one at Southern Miss, but a couple of bad games still could knock the Owls out of it.
What these numbers show is that, as much due to the overall mediocrity of C-USA as anything, that Rice has a reasonable chance of winning most of its games from here on out and even win the C-USA tournament. I haven't run the numbers, but I'd guess that this season is probably the best chance the Owls have had of winning the conference tournament since the last years Rice was in the WAC. I'll update these numbers after every set of games in Bonus Play and see how things stand thereafter. As for the games of Saturday, February 22, using the trends in the performance ratings I'll make these picks:
Southern Miss over Middle Tennessee
North Texas over Louisiana Tech
Western Kentucky over Charlotte
UAB over Florida Atlantic
Marshall over Old Dominion
Rice over UTEP
2020 Conference USA Men's Baketball Performance Ratings
There is some evidence that Rice's men's basketball team has been playing well as of late. The Owls have won four of their last five games, including victories over two of the Pod 1 teams, and the only loss was by just three points. I've tried to quantify this performance by using the performance ratings I developed from Kenneth Massey's ratings system and comparing Rice's rating to those of the other Conference USA members. I'm not doing this for the entire season; that would take far too long to compile, and I'm more interested in recent performance anyway. I decided to do it for the last ten regular-season games for each team to see how things appear going into the conference tournament. Of course, the final four games for the teams have yet to be played, so I'm going to compile the results for the last six games before Bonus Play for each team and update them over the course of the last four games.
For those unfamiliar with the performance rating, it's calculated for a particular game result by using what Massey calls the "power rating" for an opponent plus the final margin of the game adjusted for home court. For example, in Rice's recent game against Charlotte, to figure the Owls' performance rating for the game, one takes the 49ers' power rating (31.93) and add to it the score margin (Rice won 70-54, a margin of +16) adjusted for the Owls' home-court advantage (3.89, in this case subtracting because it's a home game; for road games, the opponent's home-court advantage is added to the rating). In this case, the performance rating is 31.93 + 16 -3.89 = 44.04.
Here's what the results look like for the 14 C-USA schools over their last six games each. I've calculated the median and mean performance ratings and the standard deviation of the mean ratings, and sorted by median rating:
Team, Median, Mean, Standard Deviation
Rice 39.58 37.51 10.64
Florida International 39.31 34.59 10.45
Old Dominion 38.82 35.71 8.68
Marshall 38.66 34.84 11.77
North Texas 36.16 36.25 7.29
Alabama-Birmingham 35.06 33.90 12.42
Western Kentucky 35.05 35.25 7.22
Louisiana Tech 31.72 34.16 4.57
Southern Mississippi 30.96 29.82 7.79
Florida Atlantic 29.97 31.70 10.48
Charlotte 29.90 28.84 6.22
Texas-San Antonio 29.12 28.78 9.91
Middle Tennessee 28.18 26.68 8.87
Texas-El Paso 19.64 21.86 6.92
It looks like the impression about Rice playing well lately is correct - the Owls have the highest median (and mean) rating in the conference. That bodes well for the Owls in the upcoming conference tournament. Rice also gets a break due to the vagaries of scheduling for Bonus Play - the Owls get UTEP twice, by this measure the team in the biggest slump in C-USA currently. The Miners' last good game by performance rating was their win over the Owls; since then, UTEP has lost six of its last seven, and the lone victory was at home by one point over cellar-dweller MTSU.
Of course, there are caveats to consider. Looking at the median and mean ratings, one can see that the spread is not that big, and considering the standard deviations, there isn't really much of a difference between any of the teams (except possibly UTEP). While the trends say Rice should do pretty well over the last four regular-season games and the conference tournament, actually doing it is something else. The teams are close enough so that one could really make a case for almost anyone to win the tournament. We also can't put the cart before the horse; technically, Rice hasn't even qualified for the tournament yet. Looking at the numbers, the only Bonus Play game that could give the Owls trouble is the one at Southern Miss, but a couple of bad games still could knock the Owls out of it.
What these numbers show is that, as much due to the overall mediocrity of C-USA as anything, that Rice has a reasonable chance of winning most of its games from here on out and even win the C-USA tournament. I haven't run the numbers, but I'd guess that this season is probably the best chance the Owls have had of winning the conference tournament since the last years Rice was in the WAC. I'll update these numbers after every set of games in Bonus Play and see how things stand thereafter. As for the games of Saturday, February 22, using the trends in the performance ratings I'll make these picks:
Southern Miss over Middle Tennessee
North Texas over Louisiana Tech
Western Kentucky over Charlotte
UAB over Florida Atlantic
Marshall over Old Dominion
Rice over UTEP
Fair enough. The guy put in the time and effort and used available data to compile an abbreviated metrics system.
This is how wonky CUSA is. Even with all the cold hard facts/stats at his disposal, the guy went 1-5, only getting the Marshall over ODU game correct.
Nah, I meant what I said. I don’t think CUSA is much different than it has been in the recent past in terms of quality. True, we may not have that dominant Middle Tennessee like team this year, and there is more parity than ever before, but it’s about the same middle of the pack conference as always. Only difference is anyone can beat anyone on a given night.
I am subscribed to ESPN+ and haven’t missed a single UTEP basketball game that was on the road. Have had no problems with the quality of the picture or audio.
Ditto! If they can all play to their potential, considering all the close games they lost, and if they play with heart and desire, then maybe they can win the tournament.
During the pre-game on the radio, Coach Terry said that Hawkins may be done for the season, it’s a day to day thing with his ankle.
Based on his picks, he only got one game correct. So this calculation must not mean much.
Rebounding has to improve.
Team is way to inconsistent.
As seen again, opposing players commonly out hustle UTEP. During one series one Rice player out hustled 3 Miners on the boards. UTEP stands around watching the ball during rebounds. At this level, that should rarely happen.
Other than Edwards and Boum, no one steps up during a Williams double or triple team.
FG% is atrocious on the road.
So True. I missed the game, but Rice basically won every category other than 3s. They had 17 offensive rebounds. 17!!. We had zero bench points too. We made more 3s than 2s. Despite a nearly 50 point half we didnt even score 70.
I have been a big proponent of Tydus and he is a really good offensive rebounder, but he needs to defensive rebound and finish around the rim better.
The win was basically a shooting fluke because one guy got hot. It didnt change or fix some of our other glaring problems. It just allowed us to win. Its happened a few times this year. All it's good for is increasing our frustration due to seen potential and seen inconsistency and lack of adjustments.
Just confirming since I had to leave the Rice game early (I left with less than a minute to play), a Rice player did miss two consecutive free throws towards the end of the game, correct? That means we get free Chick-fil-a, correct? One person, one sandwich!
I can't see Hawkins transferring up in conference to Houston, maybe Sam Houston but not Houston. You never really know though, I didn't think Eze could transfer up to a better conference either but he did
The second half of the Rice game was a thing of beauty, they looked like the team who played TTU charity game, it just wasn't that Edwards went off, it the way they attacked the rim, both Boum and Edward took it to the basket which then opened up the 3 ball. Rice was giving Lathon the three and he made a couple, but he is still terrible and should stay with the 10' jumper and Verhouven is very active at the rim which created offensive rebounds for everybody. Efe was burned twice along the base line... looked like in was in quick sand. Hope they can package this type of play for the next three games.
I think you-horn has been hanging out with Bob a little too much.
Ha, JK unihorn, but I couldn't resist. No offense bro!!
I’d love to see it, but I don’t see anything from this season that makes me think it might.
They have shown they can (proof) so I have hope. However, faith is lacking because they have shown they can blow it as well.
I respect your opinion and understand your conclusion.
We did start the season very strong and have come back from major deficits to win. It takes an inspiring coach to make these rallies possible.
Also, we are in the weakest pod so there is reason to be optimistic.
We will soon know how capable CRT is.
Catch lightening for a half yes. Throw together a win streak with good play, I doubt it.
Terry's plan is to live and die by the 3 and use Bryson until he dries up. Everybody in conference knows it. If there were some adjustments made for the Rice game I didnt see then great, but I dont see it in the box score. All I see is 3 point shooting got hot in the 2nd half.
This season is done, but Terry sure as hell better find some shooters or by March madness next year he may be looking for a job.
I’m with you. I hold on the smallest straw of hope until the season is officially over.
This year looks a lot like Terry’s CBI championship run at Fresno St. They were 13-14 entering the last two weeks of the season. We were 13-14 entering the same time period. They went 3-1 to end the regular season. 1-1 in the conference tournament, and 4-2 in the cbi to reach 21 overall wins. Kind of hoping he duplicates that. Might as well salvage this season as much as we can.
They haven't shown anything other than the ability to beat teams when a couple of our players happen to go off. That's not something that's happened consistently, because streaky players aren't typically consistent.
Besides that, we have typically been down by double digits in every game both home and away that we've played. That has been one of our few consistencies, and that doesn't lend much hope for us to go on some Cinderella run.
I'd honestly be surprised if we made it past the first game of the conf tourney, assuming we make it...
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