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UTEP Football currently not predicted to win a game according ESPN

UTEPDefense

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According to ESPN's match-up predicter, UTEP Football is not predicted to win a single game this season. According to this, we have less than a 50% chance in every game. The best chance that we have to win, according to this predicter, is a 42.3% chance to beat Rice:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=400938603

NMSU is essentially a 2-to-1 favorite to beat us, as we currently only have a 36.2% chance to win that game:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=400938619

I have never followed this before to see if it has any type of accuracy? For Kugler's sake, I sure hope not.
 
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I think we should all prepare for the lack of love and respect UTEP Football and Sean Kugler are going to get in the preseason hype train here in the coming months. Maybe they turn it into a us vs. The World mentality and beat the breaks off everyone, but on paper (as we prepare for previews and what-not), this 2017 UTEP team is dog s*it.

I'm guessing that maybe ESPN's fancy numbers take into the fact that UTEP has not had a WR go for over 600-yards nor caught over 50-passes, and a passer throw for at least 2,000 yards or 20 TD's, and I'm not sure our defense has not produced double digit sacks, or takeaways in the past two seasons and maybe ever under Sean "Three-and-out offense" Kugler. I see that happening again this year from that terrible spring game we witnessed a few weeks ago.

We've only won 5 C-USA games the past two seasons after going 5-3 and going to a bowl game in 2014.

Without Aaron, we should be last in every preseason poll, and Will Hernandez, Alvin Jones, and Devin Cockrell are going to be the only players talked about outside of El Paso and mentioned on All C-USA teams.

Sadly, ESPN might be right, I hope not, but the lack of production from the four stat lines I mentioned will be exposed in the preseason, and possibly all season long.

Ugh.... :(
 
If you are playing defense against UTEP all that you have to do is play zone with your two Cornerbacks, just sit them in both flats facing the QB, then man-up the TE with a safety and you basically just covered 90% of UTEP's pass routes with 3 guys. Our passing scheme takes place within a 15 yard box play after play after play.

I was hopeful, but the Spring Game left me both a bit depressed and frustrated. I just don't understand how teams all across the country can run effective offenses, yet Pease's passing offense always seems to end with a discfuctional pass somewhere to the right flat.

I always liked the idea of Kugler's power running game, we had a power running game back in 2000 when we won the WAC and it worked, but the difference was that team also had a passing game. It had Lee Mays to stretch the field and Natkin to throw to underneath that stretched out field. That combo worked, what we are currently doing doesn't.

Another thing is why are our bubble screens and jail break screens under Pease executed so badly, with so much disfunction and non-effectiveness, yet we run them so often? Aren't you supposed to get good at something when you do it a lot?

I would love for this season to be succesful, but right now I am more worried than hopeful.
 
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Expected probability per game:
Oklahoma: 0.003
Rice: 0.423
Arizona: 0.102
NMSU: 0.362 (I don't understand this one, given UTEP's recent performance against them)
Army: 0.079
WKU: 0.206
USM: 0.181
UTSA: 0.35
MTSU: 0.124
UNT: 0.313
LT: 0.248
UAB: 0.333 (How could that be right, given that UAB didn't have a team last year?)

Add them all up and UTEP is expected to win 2.724 games next year, not zero.

The probability that UTEP will win ZERO games next year is (1 - 0.003) * (1 - 0.423) * ... * (1 - 0.333)
= 0.0387 = 3.87%

So no, UTEP IS predicted to win a game; more than one, in fact.

lieb can correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm not.
 
For what it's worth, winging it in a spreadsheet, I calculate the probability of winning exactly 1 game as 15.3%. Beyond that I would need to write a computer program.
 
Every opposing team that UTEP plays is predicted to have a better chance to win the game than UTEP does, so according to that simplicity, UTEP is not predicted to win a game.
 
Expected probability per game:
Oklahoma: 0.003
Rice: 0.423
Arizona: 0.102
NMSU: 0.362 (I don't understand this one, given UTEP's recent performance against them)
Army: 0.079
WKU: 0.206
USM: 0.181
UTSA: 0.35
MTSU: 0.124
UNT: 0.313
LT: 0.248
UAB: 0.333 (How could that be right, given that UAB didn't have a team last year?)

Add them all up and UTEP is expected to win 2.724 games next year, not zero.

The probability that UTEP will win ZERO games next year is (1 - 0.003) * (1 - 0.423) * ... * (1 - 0.333)
= 0.0387 = 3.87%

So no, UTEP IS predicted to win a game; more than one, in fact.

lieb can correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm not.

I don't think you can add them up like that -- it's one game at a time.
 
I don't think you can add them up like that -- it's one game at a time.
Yes you can. They're individual, independent probabilistic events; each represents the expected number of wins for that event. The entire season also has its own expected number of wins, which is the sum of expected wins from each game.

If this were a binomial distribution (where the probability of a win or loss in each game is the same for each game), it would be fairly straightforward (but still a bit of computing) to calculate the probability for each possibility of number of wins (0 through 12), and they would add up to exactly 100%, but since each game has its own unique probability, it's not so simple.
 
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If we run with your analysis, then my initial post becomes incorrect, although it still means that we are only projected to win 2 games this year and only 2 projected wins doesn't make me feel much better.

Also, if we use the sum total provided of 2.72 out of 12 possible points, then that might actually become the bigger story here because not only does it mean that we aren't supposed to win many games, but it also basically means that we are not even supposed to be close in many of our games. Because 2.72 divided by 12 means that on average, we will only have a 22% chance to win each game that we play this year.
 
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Reading this thread got me like
61367_h.jpg
 
There are a couple of ways to look at this. If the season does turn out to be 3 wins or less, even inactive Stull would have to make a coaching change. If the team gets 6 or more wins, the team unexpectedly goes bowling. To me, its the 4 or 5 win season that is a problem. Stull might be able to keep Kugler with a season like that. I hope the Miners are successful and make a bowl but I'm not holding my breath.
 
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Expected probability per game:
Oklahoma: 0.003
Rice: 0.423
Arizona: 0.102
NMSU: 0.362 (I don't understand this one, given UTEP's recent performance against them)
Army: 0.079
WKU: 0.206
USM: 0.181
UTSA: 0.35
MTSU: 0.124
UNT: 0.313
LT: 0.248
UAB: 0.333 (How could that be right, given that UAB didn't have a team last year?)

Add them all up and UTEP is expected to win 2.724 games next year, not zero.

The probability that UTEP will win ZERO games next year is (1 - 0.003) * (1 - 0.423) * ... * (1 - 0.333)
= 0.0387 = 3.87%

So no, UTEP IS predicted to win a game; more than one, in fact.

lieb can correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm not.

This reminds me of the math joke:

A traveller enters a town and sees the following sign:

Population: 4,321
Altitude: 2000
Total: 6,321

The point being, just because you can add numbers doesn't mean you should or that the sum will mean anything.

If the numbers you have a true probabilities, then the sum cannot exceed 1. Just like you can't win more games than you play.

Now, maybe those numbers aren't really probabilities - I didn't read the article. But if they are, I hope you never take a trip to Las Vegas.

lieb
 
This reminds me of the math joke:

A traveller enters a town and sees the following sign:

Population: 4,321
Altitude: 2000
Total: 6,321

The point being, just because you can add numbers doesn't mean you should or that the sum will mean anything.

If the numbers you have a true probabilities, then the sum cannot exceed 1. Just like you can't win more games than you play.

Now, maybe those numbers aren't really probabilities - I didn't read the article. But if they are, I hope you never take a trip to Las Vegas.

lieb

LMAO!
 
The point being, just because you can add numbers doesn't mean you should or that the sum will mean anything.

If you are enrolled in a class and take 3 tests during the semester and the 3 grades that earn for each test are a: 70, 65, and a 50, then that doesn't mean that you get to add these grades together and tell your parents that you earned a 185 for that class. By adding all of UTEP's sub 50% chances to win together and saying that it equals two wins for the season, seems to be doing something similar.
 
If the numbers you have a true probabilities, then the sum cannot exceed 1. Just like you can't win more games than you play.

Now, maybe those numbers aren't really probabilities - I didn't read the article. But if they are, I hope you never take a trip to Las Vegas.

lieb

True, lieb, but we're talking about the probability mass function of number of wins in a season. It is very similar to a binomial distribution, where each game would be like a Bernoulli trial; but alas, in a binomial distribution, the probability of winning each game would be the same (call it p). The expected value, or mean, of a binomial distribution is np, where p is the probability and n is the number of trials. If we were to use UTEPDefense's estimate of 22% (really 22.67%) as p, multiply 12 * 0.2267 = 2.72 wins as our expected value, consistent with a binomial distribution. (Of course, the math is super-obvious since he arrived at that probability by dividing 2.72 by 12, so multiplying that probability by 12 should yield no surprise.)

In a binomial distribution, the expected number of wins from each game is p, and the expected number of wins for the season is the sum of the expected values from each game, or np. Of course, this case is NOT a binomial distribution because there is a different probability assigned to each game, but the expected number of wins for the season is still the sum of the expected number of wins for each game. It is a sequence of independent events.

So I wrote a computer program to run the analysis for the entire season, and here's what we get:
Probability of 0 wins: 0.0387302
Probability of 1 win: 0.152906
Probability of 2 wins: 0.265595
Probability of 3 wins: 0.267319
Probability of 4 wins: 0.172789
Probability of 5 wins: 0.0751095
Probability of 6 wins: 0.0223431
Probability of 7 wins: 0.00453685
Probability of 8 wins: 0.000615078
Probability of 9 wins: 5.30207e-005
Probability of 10 wins: 2.6302e-006
Probability of 11 wins: 5.8908e-008
Probability of 12 wins: 1.54836e-010

Add those up and it sums up to exactly 1.0. That is what you'd expect, correct?

For those of you wondering what our odds of becoming bowl eligible are, simply sum the probabilities of winning 6 or more games: Probability of 6 wins plus Probability of 7 wins and so on through the Probability of 12 wins.

The answer: The probability of being bowl eligible is 10.3%.

How does that sound?
 
If you are enrolled in a class and take 3 tests during the semester and the 3 grades that earn for each test are a: 70, 65, and a 50, then that doesn't mean that you get to add these grades together and tell your parents that you earned a 185 for that class. By adding all of UTEP's sub 50% chances to win together and saying that it equals two wins for the season, seems to be doing something similar.
Well yeah, you do add them. You earned a total of 185 out of 300 possible points, for an average of 61.7%. For UTEP, it adds to 2.72 wins out of a possible 12 wins, for an average of 0.2267 wins per game.

Just because you have less than a 50% chance of winning any particular game, that doesn't mean that your odds of winning at least one game is less than 50%. Quite the contrary.

If you flip a coin once, your chance of landing tails is 50%. If you flip a coin four times, your chance of landing tails at least one time is 93.75%. A season consists of twelve games; why is it so surprising?
 
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True, lieb, but we're talking about the probability mass function of number of wins in a season. It is very similar to a binomial distribution, where each game would be like a Bernoulli trial; but alas, in a binomial distribution, the probability of winning each game would be the same (call it p). The expected value, or mean, of a binomial distribution is np, where p is the probability and n is the number of trials. If we were to use UTEPDefense's estimate of 22% (really 22.67%) as p, multiply 12 * 0.2267 = 2.72 wins as our expected value, consistent with a binomial distribution. (Of course, the math is super-obvious since he arrived at that probability by dividing 2.72 by 12, so multiplying that probability by 12 should yield no surprise.)

In a binomial distribution, the expected number of wins from each game is p, and the expected number of wins for the season is the sum of the expected values from each game, or np. Of course, this case is NOT a binomial distribution because there is a different probability assigned to each game, but the expected number of wins for the season is still the sum of the expected number of wins for each game. It is a sequence of independent events.

So I wrote a computer program to run the analysis for the entire season, and here's what we get:
Probability of 0 wins: 0.0387302
Probability of 1 win: 0.152906
Probability of 2 wins: 0.265595
Probability of 3 wins: 0.267319
Probability of 4 wins: 0.172789
Probability of 5 wins: 0.0751095
Probability of 6 wins: 0.0223431
Probability of 7 wins: 0.00453685
Probability of 8 wins: 0.000615078
Probability of 9 wins: 5.30207e-005
Probability of 10 wins: 2.6302e-006
Probability of 11 wins: 5.8908e-008
Probability of 12 wins: 1.54836e-010

Add those up and it sums up to exactly 1.0. That is what you'd expect, correct?

For those of you wondering what our odds of becoming bowl eligible are, simply sum the probabilities of winning 6 or more games: Probability of 6 wins plus Probability of 7 wins and so on through the Probability of 12 wins.

The answer: The probability of being bowl eligible is 10.3%.

How does that sound?

I have NO idea what you just said...but it sounds really smart.

#MindBlown
 
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I have NO idea what you just said...but it sounds really smart.

#MindBlown
And yet I screwed up the calculation for bowl probability. I accidentally added the probability of 5 wins to the sum.

The probability of being bowl eligible is actually 2.75%. That sounds much worse. Crap.
 
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And yet I screwed up the calculation for bowl probability. I accidentally added the probability of 5 wins to the sum.

The probability of being bowl eligible is actually 2.75%. That sounds much worse. Crap.

Haha. Sounds really bad. At least there is really only one direction to go based on those calculations. Well...maybe I'm being a bit optimistic.
 
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Haha. Sounds really bad. At least there is really only one direction to go based on those calculations. Well...maybe I'm being a bit optimistic.
It's really bad. The probability of winning zero games is 3.87%. The probability of getting bowl eligible is 2.75%. So UTEP has a greater probability of winning zero games than to become bowl eligible.

:(
 
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If this is a throw away season it would have made sense to hire Dykes.
 
As I stated a few months ago even thought it will never be mentioned by Stull, Kug wasn't brought here to win. Kugler was brought to UTEP to clean up Price's mess. I didn't want to believe it, but Price did leave a dumpster fire. But that's over and done with.

On the plus side Kug will leave behind college graduates and a foundation built on character which is a darn good thing. Sadly, while UTEP has been a tough place to win, Kugler has now poured a new fresh foundation on top of that old expectation. Putting up twenty five yards of autograph tables on the field for a spring game, Kugler actually grinning ear to ear with fans and many photos of junior with qb Ryan Metz on twitter and instagram will not do it and plus it's too late, the damage is done. The team has some top notch players who can play anywhere, but it's Kugler's and his assistants play calling that keeps pulling a Barney Fife during games. Then top it off with the void of a passing game? Let's put it this way, Floyd is happy Kug is still here because it will take some of the heat off him for a short while as he tries to come up with a new spin on the transfers come fall.
 
As I stated a few months ago even thought it will never be mentioned by Stull, Kug wasn't brought here to win. Kugler was brought to UTEP to clean up Price's mess. I didn't want to believe it, but Price did leave a dumpster fire. But that's over and done with.

On the plus side Kug will leave behind college graduates and a foundation built on character which is a darn good thing. Sadly, while UTEP has been a tough place to win, Kugler has now poured a new fresh foundation on top of that old expectation. Putting up twenty five yards of autograph tables on the field for a spring game, Kugler actually grinning ear to ear with fans and many photos of junior with qb Ryan Metz on twitter and instagram will not do it and plus it's too late, the damage is done. The team has some top notch players who can play anywhere, but it's Kugler's and his assistants play calling that keeps pulling a Barney Fife during games. Then top it off with the void of a passing game? Let's put it this way, Floyd is happy Kug is still here because it will take some of the heat off him for a short while as he tries to come up with a new spin on the transfers come fall.

CMP at least competed with the P5 and didn't consistantly lose to former Sunbelt programs and lose badly. If CMP left a dumpster fire, CSK has added timber soaked in lighter fluid.
 
CMP at least competed with the P5 and didn't consistantly lose to former Sunbelt programs and lose badly. If CMP left a dumpster fire, CSK has added timber soaked in lighter fluid.

Some of this is true, but before we get carried away, this is what happened during Mike Price's Final Season at UTEP:

- UTEP only won 3 games during Price's final season.

- UTEP put up it's worst 4 year APR average in school history of 911.

- UTEP recieved an APR penalty and lost 4 scholarships.

- UTEP needed a miracle APR score in the following season(Kugler's first year) just to avoid receiving even more APR sanctions.

That was the state of the Football Program when Mike Price left it. Price left UTEP with 7 straight losing seasons and it was a Program that was losing both on and off the field. Yes, Price was more competitive in some instances(like OU and Ole Miss) but at the end of the day he did not win those games and above is what was left for the next coach.


What is interesting is that the UTEP Football Program has not signicantly improved on the field since Price left, yet a case can be made that it is currently in the middle of having it's greatest "off-the-field" performance in school history:

- UTEP Football this year earned a perfect 1,000 APR score for the first time in school history, which literally means that every single player in the Program is on track to graduate.

- UTEP Football also just recorded it's highest 4 year average APR score(980) in school history.

- UTEP Football Program has also not had an off-the-field incident in 13 months(since March 2016, when Aaron Jones had a DUI). Over a year of perfect behavior from an entire team of college football players is a streak that most Programs would die for(I.E. Baylor).


If UTEP should have a disaster of a season on the field, it will be interesting to see if the Administration will fire a Coach who is also running a Program nearly perfectly off-the-field?
 
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Some of this is true, but before we get carried away, this is what happened during Mike Price's season:

- UTEP only won 3 games during Price's final season.

- UTEP put up it's worst 4 year APR average in school history of 911.

- UTEP recieved an APR penalty and lost 4 scholarships.

- UTEP needed a miracle APR score in the following season(Kugler's first year) just to avoid receiving even more APR sanctions.

That was the state of the Football Program when Mike Price left it. Price left UTEP with 7 straight losing seasons and it was a Program that was losing both on and off the field. Yes, Price was more competitive in some instances(like OU and Ole Miss) but at the end of the day he did not win those games and above is what was left for the next coach.


What is interesting is that the UTEP Football Program has not signicantly improved on the field since Price left, yet a case can be made that it is currently in the middle of having it's greatest "off-the-field" performance in school history:

- UTEP Football this year earned a perfect 1,000 APR for the first time in school history, which literally means that every player in the Program is on track to graduate.

- UTEP Football also just recorded it's highest 4 year average APR score(980) in school history.

- UTEP Football Program has also not had a major off-the-field incident in 13 months(since March 2016, when Aaron Jones had a DUI). Over a year of perfect behavior from an entire team of college football players is a streak that most Programs would die for(I.E. Baylor).


If UTEP should have a disaster of a season on the field, it will be interesting to see if the Administration will fire a Coach who is also running a Program nearly perfectly off-the-field?

Good points. Well said.
 
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I wish we could find a middle ground. An APR score of 980+ but only three-four wins vs FBS opponents isn't cutting it. Graduating kids is good and all but I much rather have a score of 931 and 6-8 wins than this current arrangement. If these win predictions come true which they mostly do BS will have to pull the trigger.
 
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Graduating but losing games is not a reason to keep a coach. Hell they don't even do that in HS. Kug may have changed the academics but the football is terrible and will take a damn good Coach to fix. He should have been fired after last season and this season will be much worse. UTEP just doesn't give a damn about sports is my opinion. If they did several coaches would be fired.
 
True, lieb, but we're talking about the probability mass function of number of wins in a season. It is very similar to a binomial distribution, where each game would be like a Bernoulli trial; but alas, in a binomial distribution, the probability of winning each game would be the same (call it p). The expected value, or mean, of a binomial distribution is np, where p is the probability and n is the number of trials. If we were to use UTEPDefense's estimate of 22% (really 22.67%) as p, multiply 12 * 0.2267 = 2.72 wins as our expected value, consistent with a binomial distribution. (Of course, the math is super-obvious since he arrived at that probability by dividing 2.72 by 12, so multiplying that probability by 12 should yield no surprise.)

In a binomial distribution, the expected number of wins from each game is p, and the expected number of wins for the season is the sum of the expected values from each game, or np. Of course, this case is NOT a binomial distribution because there is a different probability assigned to each game, but the expected number of wins for the season is still the sum of the expected number of wins for each game. It is a sequence of independent events.

So I wrote a computer program to run the analysis for the entire season, and here's what we get:
Probability of 0 wins: 0.0387302
Probability of 1 win: 0.152906
Probability of 2 wins: 0.265595
Probability of 3 wins: 0.267319
Probability of 4 wins: 0.172789
Probability of 5 wins: 0.0751095
Probability of 6 wins: 0.0223431
Probability of 7 wins: 0.00453685
Probability of 8 wins: 0.000615078
Probability of 9 wins: 5.30207e-005
Probability of 10 wins: 2.6302e-006
Probability of 11 wins: 5.8908e-008
Probability of 12 wins: 1.54836e-010

Add those up and it sums up to exactly 1.0. That is what you'd expect, correct?

For those of you wondering what our odds of becoming bowl eligible are, simply sum the probabilities of winning 6 or more games: Probability of 6 wins plus Probability of 7 wins and so on through the Probability of 12 wins.

The answer: The probability of being bowl eligible is 10.3%.

How does that sound?

Well, this is way better and you've got an actual probability density function here. That's what I would've expected to see instead of the individual probabilities you listed originally.

Great stuff!

lieb
 
Graduating but losing games is not a reason to keep a coach. Hell they don't even do that in HS. Kug may have changed the academics but the football is terrible and will take a damn good Coach to fix. He should have been fired after last season and this season will be much worse. UTEP just doesn't give a damn about sports is my opinion. If they did several coaches would be fired.

If he was a man of his word, he would've walked away on his own accord. Still waiting on that 3 year turnaround he said he'd hold himself to.
 
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I think we should all prepare for the lack of love and respect UTEP Football and Sean Kugler are going to get in the preseason hype train here in the coming months. Maybe they turn it into a us vs. The World mentality and beat the breaks off everyone, but on paper (as we prepare for previews and what-not), this 2017 UTEP team is dog s*it.

I'm guessing that maybe ESPN's fancy numbers take into the fact that UTEP has not had a WR go for over 600-yards nor caught over 50-passes, and a passer throw for at least 2,000 yards or 20 TD's, and I'm not sure our defense has not produced double digit sacks, or takeaways in the past two seasons and maybe ever under Sean "Three-and-out offense" Kugler. I see that happening again this year from that terrible spring game we witnessed a few weeks ago.

We've only won 5 C-USA games the past two seasons after going 5-3 and going to a bowl game in 2014.

Without Aaron, we should be last in every preseason poll, and Will Hernandez, Alvin Jones, and Devin Cockrell are going to be the only players talked about outside of El Paso and mentioned on All C-USA teams.

Sadly, ESPN might be right, I hope not, but the lack of production from the four stat lines I mentioned will be exposed in the preseason, and possibly all season long.

Ugh.... :(

Well said.

I missed the spring game this year but I got enough texts and phone calls to surmise that I'm glad I did. I don't need my blood pressure that high in the off season.

As far as ESPN is concerned, I'm sure UTEP doesn't even register as mildly interesting. That's the sad part. The other sad part is what you summed up as the "Three and out offense." I've said from the start I felt SK wasn't coaching to the players he had, but to the players he wished he had. That started from the OLine backwards. I still shudder at the beating the QB took against Arkansas because they had him under center. Some things you can't un-see.

I'd like to believe this is the year they turn the corner and at least move in a forward direction. I won't even say I'd like them to be competitive against Oklahoma and Arizona. Rather, be respectable. As for their CUSA schedule, it's a 50-50 mosh pit.
 
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Some of this is true, but before we get carried away, this is what happened during Mike Price's Final Season at UTEP:

- UTEP only won 3 games during Price's final season.

- UTEP put up it's worst 4 year APR average in school history of 911.

- UTEP recieved an APR penalty and lost 4 scholarships.

- UTEP needed a miracle APR score in the following season(Kugler's first year) just to avoid receiving even more APR sanctions.

That was the state of the Football Program when Mike Price left it. Price left UTEP with 7 straight losing seasons and it was a Program that was losing both on and off the field. Yes, Price was more competitive in some instances(like OU and Ole Miss) but at the end of the day he did not win those games and above is what was left for the next coach.

What is interesting is that the UTEP Football Program has not signicantly improved on the field since Price left, yet a case can be made that it is currently in the middle of having it's greatest "off-the-field" performance in school history:

- UTEP Football this year earned a perfect 1,000 APR score for the first time in school history, which literally means that every single player in the Program is on track to graduate.

- UTEP Football also just recorded it's highest 4 year average APR score(980) in school history.

- UTEP Football Program has also not had an off-the-field incident in 13 months(since March 2016, when Aaron Jones had a DUI). Over a year of perfect behavior from an entire team of college football players is a streak that most Programs would die for(I.E. Baylor).

If UTEP should have a disaster of a season on the field, it will be interesting to see if the Administration will fire a Coach who is also running a Program nearly perfectly off-the-field?

Lots to unpack here, so let's get started. Ever heard the expression, "Figures don't lie, but liars figure"? Consider that saying in the context of this full response... (caution: long)

Point 1: Indeed, Price won 3 football games his final season. Fact. But for context (and honesty), consider the schedule that year included Oklahoma, @Ole Miss, @Wisconsin, @East Carolina, @ Tulsa, @Houston, @Central Florida, SMU, and Southern Miss. See a pattern here? Every one of those teams (except USM) was either a P5 powerhouse or joined the AAC, a league galatically beyond the current competition iteration of C-USA. Can you imagine a Kugler-coached team over the past four seasons playing anywhere near that type of year in/year out schedule? Me either. So, if you're going to continue to compare Ws and Ls, at least be honest and keep things in perspective.

Point 2: It's comical that you and others continue to litigate the case against Mike Price. Nobody - NOBODY - has argued that Price did not need to go. He did. Fact. And I have repeatedly argued that it was probably two seasons too late. So please, take yes for an answer on the Price replacement thing. Of course, that doesn't have jack shit to do with the past four seasons, does it?

Point 3: As you correctly state, UTEP's APR for the entire five-year reporting period was nothing short of dismal. Fact. But, again, consider the context. Price bet the ranch and the chickens on the season UTEP went to the New Mexico Bowl. It was an overwhelmingly senior-dominated squad. On offense alone, the QB (Vittatoe), the entire starting offensive line, the wide receivers all were seniors. Unfortunately, a huge number of players on that squad dropped out of school immediately following the bowl game, did not finish. The consequences, of course, were that UTEP's APR was decimated that year which, of course, dramatically impacted the following five-year APR reporting period averages. It took the entire period to rebound from that catastrophe, but there was improvement. Proof? In YOUR own words, "UTEP needed a miracle APR score in the following season (Kugler's first year) just to avoid receiving even more APR sanctions." Remember, Kugler was hired in January '13 and all of those football players graduated the following May. Do you think those kids all of a sudden just got smart in Kugler's first five months? And remember, again for context and honesty, every one of those May and December '13 graduating players was a Mike Price recruit. In fact, of all the UTEP football players that have graduated on Kugler's watch, how many would you guess were Kugler recruits. I'm going with zero. And here's a final true factoid: Kugler did not even attend the ceremony at the Durham honoring those May '13 football graduates on their graduation day. But you know who did? Yep, Mike Price. Fact.

Point 4: Kugler deserves full credit for establishing a climate and an environment of academic and disciplinary excellence. But to suggest, as you have stated, that Stull brought Kugler to UTEP to clean up Price's off the field "dumpster fire" is laughable. Proof? There certainly were issues in his later years, but if Price had been winning 6, 7, 8 football games each year, who do you think would be the Head Football Coach at UTEP today? Exactly. But he was deservedly fired for failure to consistently win football games.

Point 5: Kugler set the performance bar from himself at UTEP: three seasons. What happened to all that?

Bottom line, hear what I'm saying, don't hear what I'm not saying. Like any other head coach in America, Kugler was hired to transform UTEP into a winning football program. He hasn't. Enabled by Stull, he has instead run (literally) this program into the ground, as evidenced by fan attendance and interest. Fact. Price was "retired" on the basis of his won-loss record. Hold Kugler - and Stull - to the same standard.
 
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Theres's some horrible logic in this thread (mainly by the OP), I guess I shouldnt be surprised. So much fake news, sad! Terrible topic title that is nothing but clickbait...
 
Point 1: So, if you're going to continue to compare Ws and Ls, at least be honest and keep things in perspective.

I'm not sure if you realize this, but we actually agree here. I even directly wrote in my post above that there has not been any on field improvement since Price left. Not sure I get your point here? But it was false to accuse me of comparing W's and L's and then write an entire paragraph about it, when that was something that I never said. The fact is that I have written absolutely nothing in support of Kugler's on field performance in this entire thread....just for some perspective.

My Response to your Paragraph 2: I responded to a post by Utepader and I made the claim that things weren't as rosey as he/she remembered them. I then stated 3 facts to support why I was disagreeing with him/her. If you disagree with that then okay let's discuss, but don't create things that I never said.

My Response to your Paragraph 3: The APR numbers dropped in each of Mike Price's final 3 seasons here(928, 918, 911). Conversely, since the new Coach has arrived, the APR has risen every single year that he has been here or 5 years in a row(917, 928, 954, 973, 980). A lot of work was needed at the time that Price left and it was described as a near miracle that we avoided more sanctions the following year. The overall situation was not good at the time that Price left.

Point 4: But to suggest, as you have stated, that Stull brought Kugler to UTEP to clean up Price's off the field "dumpster fire" is laughable. Proof?

I'm actually not the person who wrote that post. UTEP2STEP wrote that post. I never even interacted with that post or even liked that post. It's odd that you started your post by focusing on "facts", then you accused the wrong person of saying something. Which is exactly what you did here. Please go back and look, I am not the person that said Stull brought Kugler to clean up Price's off the field "dumpster fire". That was UTEP2STEP. Please address him for that claim, not me.

Point 5: Kugler set the performance bar from himself at UTEP: three seasons. What happened to all that?

Again, I don't get your point as we appear to be in agreement here. Maybe you did not read my frustrations in the previous posts including the alarming reason why I started this entire thread. In the 3rd post of this thread, I even directly wrote that what we are currently doing (on the field) is not working.
 
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MP final three wins were against teams with a combined record of 3-31. I think SK would finish with a similar record. Either way not good enough.
 
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