If Stanford and cal quit acting like elitists and aren't picky, they could save the PAC.
Colorado to Big 12 + realignment talk going forward
- Thread starter NoNCAAWinsSince1992
- Start date
Remember when the Big East got raided and eventually became the AAC? I think this a similar situation. I think the Pac-12 will do what it needs to do for self preservation. The remaining Pac 12 schools would rather be with the pick of the litter of MW schools than all the MW schools. We'll see how it shakes out. I suspect more movement will happen quickly though
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If the PAC-4 is going to survive by poaching the best of the MWC, they will need to address the $32M per team exit fee. That seems like the least likely scenario, but we shall see.
Unfortunately UTEP hasn't put themselves in a very attractive position to be one of the 1st teams thought of in mid major realignment. Geographically it makes since and if UTEP and NMSU are winning both fan bases support which is good, but other than that I don't know as it stands. However hopefully President Wilson and AD are aggressive. This would be best case scenario for us I think.
New PAC 12
Stanford
Washington St.
Cal
Oregon St.
Boise St.
SDSU
Colorado St.
UNLV
Fresno St.
Air Force
Memphis
Rice
(Highest Rated Mid Major)
New Mountain West
Wyoming
Nevada
UNM
San Jose St.
Utah St.
Hawaii
Louisiana Tech
Utep
NMSU
North Dakota St (FCS to FBS)
New PAC 12
Stanford
Washington St.
Cal
Oregon St.
Boise St.
SDSU
Colorado St.
UNLV
Fresno St.
Air Force
Memphis
Rice
(Highest Rated Mid Major)
New Mountain West
Wyoming
Nevada
UNM
San Jose St.
Utah St.
Hawaii
Louisiana Tech
Utep
NMSU
North Dakota St (FCS to FBS)
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I mean, not really. UTEP decided 20 years ago they wanted to be with “Texas schools”. Had they remained in the WAC, would have probably been in the MWC already.
UTEP has won 1 basketball regular season title, zero tournament titles, and zero division/conference titles in football. Horrible move in hindsight.
MWC at worst will merge with the 4 Pac 12 schools. They are not going to pay the high exit fees to move to a conference with 4 teams. The MWC has the upper hand in this scenario. The Pac 12 schools have no choice but to join the MWC.
This was the scenario I predicted, I just didn't think Stanford and Cal would be left.
So
That new Pac 12 might not be enough to save their conference status. I’m curious to see what’s gonna happen to the Rose Bowl. It’s going to be weird not seeing those traditional PAC-12/Big 10 matchups..
Same. Thought at the very least, Stanford would get an invite to the Big10. Really thought Cal would have too.
I cannot imagine either in a merged PAC/MWC. I don’t think this round of realignment is over yet.
There are only a couple of viable options for the PAC-4. A PAC-4/MWC partnership is still possible but not very likely. I mean, a 4 team conference? Nah.
Most realistic option is a PAC-4/MWC merger of sorts. Merging the remaining PAC-4 with the MWC would mean a 16-team conference. While it is possible, I don't really see that happening. I think Cal and Stanford see themselves as being better than that. The MWC schools can't do anything. None of them are going to eat the $34 million exit fee.
I can see a situation where both Cal and Stanford go independent. Oregon State and Washington State are realizing that they ain't all that. They rode the coattails of their in-state rivals. Now they have no choice but to join the MWC.
Only question remaining at that point is whether or not the MWC would stay at 14 schools or would they want to add 2 more and go to 16? If they decide to add 2 more, who do they add?
This seems the most likely at least at this point. However the chips are still moving so who knows. We'll see if it actually trickles down to effect Utep or not or we're stuck for awhile.
If the MWC is able to add any combination of the 4 Pacs, they’re definitely not adding anyone else. Could have had them already.
The only chance of UTEP being moved is if the Pac 4 find a way to leave out Wyoming and other undesirable MWC schools. It’s very very unlikely.
I think we could be looking at the end of the Pac 12. Can they convince any teams from the MWC to defect to a conference with no TV deal? Plus I bet the 4 remaining schools are worried because any merger with the MWC would mean a huge decrease in TV revenue and we all know these schools burn through money like it’s gonna rot. So for me I think a MWC merger would be their last option.
Would love to see the Sun Bowl pick up some free dollars. Was tired of seeing the same schools anyway.
PACs best shot is to add 4 AAC teams initially that are desperate to keep a former P5 conference alive. Get them to 8 teams and then add MWC teams to fill out the rest of the spots. The PAC teams could file a waiver with the NCAA to stay alive with 4 teams until 2025. That would give the AAC and MWC less to pay in exit fees.
The AAC just added schools. I don't see any of them leaving anytime soon.
I was thinking schools like Memphis, USF, SmU and Tulane. I don't know how the pandemic affected their ADs. I know the first three would do anything to be in a P5. Rice and maybe UTSA might be willing as well, although maybe more difficult since they just entered.
I seriously doubt the PAC-4 would still be considered a "P5" conference. It wouldn't make sense for an AAC school to join them. All the TV money will follow UCLA, USC, Oregon, and Washington to the Big-10.
I giggle now as I read comments from school Presidents and ADs talking about how "regionality and rivalries" are so fvcking important now. And it's not just remaining PAC-4 Presidents and ADs. Even existing Big-10 ADs and coaches are questioning the addition of Oregon and Washington.
Haha. Welcome to our nightmare.
I don’t know. If the PAC 12 were to add any AAC team it would be an absolute geographic clusterf*ck. Those 4 schools are in deep sh*t. And it’s like you guys are saying, the money is following all the other schools out the door. These 4 schools are going to get a HUGE haircut regardless of what conference they join.
Also, not to bring this around to UTEP, but we’ve really screwed the pooch too. How are we the oldest member of C-USA? Everyone else has bolted for greener pastures and we’re still hanging around like idiots.
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0% chance Pac4 and added AAC or MWC would be a P5, O!
I know we're watching the west coast realignment, but we should probably be a little more worried about the ACC. It's looking more and more likely the PAC implosion isn't going to affect us. But, what happens if Clemson and FSU leave the ACC? Does the ACC backfill out of the AAC, who then raids CUSA again (WKU/MT)?
When CUSA gets raided, their only options will be FCS schools. UMass as a football only option, is the only FBS team CUSA has a shot at joining in the future.
Kept Price, Kugler, and Floyd too long. I complained about it for years. Cheerleaders like 2Step would come up with all kinds of excuses to try and justify their continued employment.
Because they were coaching here so long, many fans started doing other things. Fans can only take losing and mediocrity for so long. UTEP has no one to blame, but themselves.
A school with ambition would have kicked those bums to the curb long before they “retired” or quit mid season like the rats that they were.
FSU wants out of the ACC badly. But the ACC GoR goes thru 2036. I read this morning that there *might* be a path out but it would require the Florida legislature to pass some law to give FSU a legal out.
If that happens though, look for other state legislatures to make similar moves to get other schools out of the ACC GoR.
I agree. We let coaches go for too long. Administrators too. Stull and Natalicio being the main culprits. There is 0 reason we should be in C-USA at this point. Everyone is gone and these new schools just come in and pummel us.
I was looking online and the PAC 12 pays out 37 million every year to member schools while the MWC pays out 6.6. These PAC 12 schools have to be crapping their pants thinking about the prospects of what that will do to their Athletic Departments.
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UTEP unfortunately doesn't fit into what the AAC looks for. We would have a better chance in the SBC.
The Florida legislature would never do something that crazy, would they?
One takeaway from this round of realignment is that things that couldn't/wouldn't/shouldn't happen have happened. If 5 years ago you said the Big 10 would stretch from LA to Piscataway and the PAC would cease to exist, most people probably would have laughed at you. But here we are.
Hell, I think UMass views themselves as too good for CUSA.
Most likely you are right. However there is a line of G5s ready to jump into the PAC, if Stanford/Cal get off their high horses.
Unfortunately geography means nothing. If anything geography stinks in all conferences outside of the SBC due to the media companies. They want teams in different timezones to fill different time slots. Which is why the PAC screwed themselves by not adding teams outside of the Pacific and Mountain time zones sooner.
And UTEP is stuck in CUSA and they turned down the opportunity to get out about a decade ago. UTEP gon UTEP.
The sad thing is all these schools have essentially tossed rivalries and regional affiliations out the window in search of money.
UMass would 100% accept a football only invite to CUSA. CUSA does not want them as football only because they’re just as bad as NMSU, UTEP, and FIU. CUSA wants all their sports and UMass doesn’t want to leave the A10. That is why they’re not already in CUSA. CUSA does not benefit from having a football only membership with them.
Hey, the SEC doesn't have any presence in the Mountain Time Zone. Just sayin'. They're missing out on that coveted 10p-3a Eastern time window.
To be fair, like 5% (okay I don't know the real number = minor amount) of the population lives in that timezone. Big10 just locked the SEC out of populous Cali. The SEC has the heavily populated southeast on lock though.
These guys did it to themselves. They were paying almost 7 million annually in rent for their offices in San Francisco. Their commissioner is just as dumb if not worse than Karl Benson.
